AFC North 2011 Predictions

Okay, in light of the current lockout, I wanted to wait for it to end. However, every day news of more delays come and I've given up hoping that anything can get passed by the owners, plaintiffs and players in the next few days. 

So here are my predictions for the AFC North. I hope that you enjoy them. 

AFC NORTH

1.       Baltimore Ravens – 13-3

Reasons – The Ravens have been poised for a few years now, since the introduction of Harbaugh and Flacco, to make the leap. After playoff appearances in the last three seasons, coupled with close losses at the end of these runs, the consistency is there. However, the Ravens need two things – more explosive play from Flacco and to cut down on costly mistakes. It could be said that Flacco is still developing as a quarterback, but the drafting on WR Torrey Smith should give him one more receiving threat. Secondly, they’ve lost big games, notably to Pittsburgh and one to New England last year, because of mistakes – fumbles and interceptions. If the offense can become more explosive and cut down on mistakes, it will make it easier for the aging defense to win it all. Speaking of the defense, though Ray Lewis is a young 36, the rest of the corps are getting older. The secondary, a major problem last year, was bolstered by the addition of first round pick Jimmy Smith. Ed Reed should be healthy to continue applying pressure.

Overall – The Ravens can make the leap to a championship, but they better hurry because the window for the defense is closing.

2.       Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4

Reasons – It’s always a tossup between the Ravens and the Steelers for the AFC North crown. However, a Super B owl loss is always demoralizing for a team. Rarely do past Super Bowl losers come back with a championship season the next year. The Steelers also have a habit of swaying between mediocrity and glory. Though their record from the last five seasons it 51- 29, those reasons include a 9-7 and 8-8 season. All that being said, Pittsburgh has an easy schedule this year, the only teams with winning records being Baltimore (x2), Indianapolis, Kansas City and New England. Besides this encouraging schedule, Pittsburgh also returns almost its entire starting roster from last year. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger won’t have any suspensions and could be poised for a career year. Perhaps the addition of Plaxico Burress could help him? Round two? The defense is always fierce, lead by Harrison, Woodley and Polamalu. Polamalu needs to not have any injury issues or miss games. A rule change about hitting the qaurterback should quite Harrison and sure him that hard hits are still part of the league. Regardless of the drama off the field, the unit thrives under Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau.

Overall – The Steelers could be a playoff team once again, if they can get over the Super Bowl letdown.

3.       Cleveland Browns – 7-9

Reasons – The Browns have spent the last few years searching for a quick solution. Now with a General Manager (Holmgren) and a Coach (Shurmur), who both believe in the West Coast system, some consistency may be on the horizon. Colt McCoy will have to finish developing, but has a potential running game behind him. Peyton Hillis had a breakout season last year, though durability could be an issue. Own Marcelic could help take the load off. They lack a stand out receiver, because Cribbs is still really a return man and may leave as a free agent. Ben Watson is a good tight end and should bolster the new West Coast offense. If the lockout ends soon, and Shurmur can get together with McCoy and teach the offense, they could finally have an identity. The defense is mediocre and new coordinator Dick Jauron is switching it to the 4-3. The secondary is known as the ‘corner stone’ of this unity and might be able to help them. However, transitions are never easy – time will show if the 4-3 is better suited to the current Browns.

Overall – The Browns had flashes of brilliance in games against New England and New Orleans last year. However a .500 season might be a stretch for these guys. One more ‘rebuilding’ year, boys.

4.       Cincinnati Bengals – 4-12

Reasons – the Cincinnati Bengals have become such a show over the last few years, it’s a wonder Marvin Lewis hasn’t been fired for allowing it to go on. Now the loud mouths are on the way out and the rookies are in. Dalton (quarterback) and AJ Green (Wide receiver) are expected to fill the gaps of Palmer and ‘T.Ocho’. Maybe one day they can, but with the lockout dragging on, every day they lose of training camp makes it more and more unlikely that they will do so immediately. Until then, the offense will rely on Cedric Benson, who once again found himself in legal trouble and may have a suspension coming. He also needs to be re-signed as soon as the lockout ends. He’s capable and could really help give the offense a rock to start on. If these three can’t get something going, Marvin Lewis may be jobless. The defensive unit should continue to progress under Mike Zimmer. They’ve had some ups and downs over the past few years, but have generally been good. Better than the offense, though that’s not saying much. There was a little fall off last year, but it needs to become consistent and give the offense the help it needs. The Bengals have to show that they’re more than reality T.V. If things don’t change this year, then the management may finally cancel the current regime.

Overall – Don’t hope for much from these Bengals. It’s been a few chaotic years and one down, but calmer year, will be better in the long run. 

Lockout 101

Define lockout: The NFL lockout is a measure imposed on the players by the owners. It’s a response to having no CBA (collective bargaining agreement) in place. It essentially puts a freeze on all NFL team operations. It is different from a strike, which is started by the players.

Define CBA: CBA stands for collective bargaining agreement. The first CBA was created in 1968, but the one that just expired was created in 1993. The collective bargaining agreement is a legal document between the NFL owners and the NFLPA (National Football League Players Association). It deals with financial issues and in many ways acts as a contract between all players and the owners. We’ll discuss the specifics of it later in this article.

Define NFLPA: The National Football League Players Association is a labor union. It acts as a go-between, or representative body, for all the NFL players. Rookies are not members of the NFLPA because technically they are not NFL players yet. When the union decertifies it means that because it is no longer a ‘union’, it can sue the league as a professional body and to resolve issues. Right now there is an antitrust suit going on between the players and the league.

A brief bit of history: This isn’t the first time there have been labor issues in the NFL. There have been three previous major strikes (1974, 1982 and 1987) and one decertification (1987). People often forget this because the current CBA had been in place since 1993 and the younger generation, such as myself, doesn’t know about the past history. It is a good sign that the lockout will end, and probably soon. The maximum number of missed games was four in ’87.

The issues:

There are three general categories that current issues can fall under. Keep in mind that there are not simply three issues and this division is my own personal way of explaining it.

1.       Financial –

a.       Salary cap is always an issue for the owners, who don’t want to find themselves paying exorbitant amounts for money. The players obviously want more money, but the owners will fight hard against the possibility of still higher salaries. A general salary cap help even the playing field for teams who don’t make as much. Basically any team not the Dallas Cowboys or Washington Redskins. If you want an example of what football might look like with no salary cap, look to major league baseball. Teams like the Red Sox or Yankees can consistently buy the best players. In my opinion, football needs a salary cap to keep each season interesting and keep the possibility of ‘worst to first’ always on the table. A minor segment of the salary cap issue is the concept of a rookie salary cap. Both the owners and the players are in agreement that untested rookies making more than proven veterans is a problem. A rookie cap would also prevent another JaMarcus Russell thirty million dollar waste. Because of the agreement on both sides, and the fact that the rookies have no power at the table, this will probably become part of the new CBA. We’ve seen the last of the giant rookie contracts – sorry Cam Newton.

b.      Another financial issue is ‘opening the books’. The players believe that the owners have been hiding their true revenues. When the antitrust suit was filed, this was one of the main grievances. It is questionable when the owners refuse to completely open the books from the last ten years to the players. After all, the owners owe their money to the players. The owners continual refusal to be completely open had the players frustrated.

c.       This leads into the last financial issue – revenue sharing. Revenue sharing is how the final profits are divided between the players and owners. The NFL is now a nine billion dollar industry and the players want their share. Right now they take 59.6 percent, which the owners feel is too much. However, the owners skim one billion off the top for expenses – stadium and facility maintenance, etc. At this point (July 7, 2011) there are rumors that the NFL and the NFLPA are close to reaching a settlement on this issue. The figures haven’t been released, but this is the closest they appear to have been to getting an actual deal done. This is one of the foremost issues and the one that has received most of the media coverage. I’m hesitant to say that these rumors signify a breakthrough. Never the less, both sides would be crazy to leave nine billion dollars on the table.

2.       Season Length –

a.       The owners want 18 games; the players don’t. Roger Goodell has come out and said that either way is still a 20 game format (18 regular season games and two preseason games vs. 16 regular season games and four preseason games). Everyone knows that two preseason games are not the same as two regular season ones. Starts don’t even play more than a series or two in the final two preseason games. Owner Dan Rooney (Pittsburgh) has the right idea – he said that he doesn’t support an 18 game season because the players don’t want it and he’d rather make less money than force it down the players’ throats. An 18 game season would hurt player longevity and raise issues about salaries. Say a player makes a million dollars a year, which is $62,000 a games in the current 16 game format. If there are 18 games, then does he make $62,500 a game (totaling $1,125,000 a year) or one million dollars overall ($55,555 a game)? Not a huge difference, but if you’re Tom Brady or Peyton Manning making 15 or 16 million a year, the gap becomes larger.

3.       Health benefits for NFL Alumni-

a.       This issue has been somewhat pushed to the side by the media and the owners, but for the players it remains an important topic. Drew Brees is the most vocal current player I’ve heard on this issue.  The players want bigger pensions and a larger health care fund. Disability issues fall here too – but it all becomes a money issue for the owners. The players basically want the owners to put away more money for the players’ health fund each year. Not every player in the NFL makes millions (minimum wage is $325,000) or plays for 15 years (players typically last four or five years). If you want an example of why these improved funds and benefits are needed, look to John Mackey’s story. He died this week and was a hall of fame TE for the Baltimore Colts in the 60s and early 70s. At the age of 62, he developed dementia and died at 69. His wife of 40 years had to go back to work as a flight attendant to pay the bills. I think everyone, myself included, needs to take a closer look at the long term health ramifications of the NFL. Improved helmets will help, but nothing can ever take the danger out of the game.

What happens if a CBA doesn’t get done?

There’s not a much chance of the owners being able to bring in the ‘scabs’, as happened in ’82 and ’87. Scabs are players who didn’t make the team and will play regardless of what the stars are doing. However, it basically boils down to the fact that NFL events will start to be missed – starting with the preseason hall of fame game in a month.

What is Goodell’s role?

Goodell has power, but not in relation to this. The owners pay him and he has to go along with them – he can’t sign a CBA because of his figurehead status. He acts as a representative for the owners. In many ways, he’s supposed to be the middle ground here.

Will they play?

In the end, I think so. Think of the lockout like a seesaw. Right now, the owners have the leverage. But when the players start missing games and the owners start losing money, the seesaw will rock back to the players’ side and they’ll have the power. Even now, there finally seems to be a sense of urgency between the owners, Goodell and DeMaurice Smith (head of the NFLPA).

Please check out nflalumni.org for more information about players’ lives post NFL and what they want to change.

Recommended reading – Brand NFL, by Michael Oriard.