Week 1 Game Picks

Week 1 PICKS

Here it is! What we've all been waiting for. Here's also where I put my money where my mouth is. 

Ex.  (here's what it'll look like normally)

Saints (0-0) v. Packers (0-0)

Pick: Packers      Result: Packers

However, this week, Everyone Is Undefeated. 

Steelers v. Ravens

Pick: Ravens      

Bengals v. Browns

Pick: Browns

Colts v. Texans

Pick: Texans

Titans v. Jaguars

Pick: Titans

Falcons v. Bears

Pick: Falcons

Bills v. Chiefs

Pick: Bills

Eagles v. Rams

Pick: Eagles

Lions v. Buccaneers

Pick: Lions

Seahawks v. 49ers

Pick: 49ers

Giants v. Redskins

Pick: Giants

Vikings v. Chargers

Pick: Chargers

Panthers v. Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals

Cowboys v. Jets

Pick: Cowboys

Patriots v. Dolphins

Pick: Patriots

Raiders v. Broncos

Pick: Raiders

NFC WEST 2011 Predictions

This is the last set of predictions! Which is darn good because the season starts today!! YESSSS. My life is officially once again complete. On that note, I will be posting game by game predictions later today -- probably much closer to kick off time! 

NFC WEST

1)      St. Louis Rams

This is no Greatest Show on Turf, but they can win the division. They almost did last year. Sam Bradford will flourish with Josh McDaniels there. With Jackson still going strong, the run support is there. Remember, this is the worst division in football – defenses will give up big runs. Wide receiver is a wild card here. Mike Sims-Walker could the answer, but the return of Clayton and Avery will doubtless help as well. I think Amendola will breakout Welker-like. At TE Kendricks and Hoomanawanul could create major matchup problems. Defensively, Spagnuolo has a heavy hand in things, but it’s Ken Flajule’s show to run. The rush is solid – a carryover from Spagnuolo’s New York years. Long and Hall are both decent ends that demand attention. Laurinaitis has become the unquestioned leader of this unit, but needs his supporting LBs to, well, support. In the secondary the loss of Oshiomoho Atogwe hurts. But Bartell and Fletcher are decent at the corners. Finding a replacement for Atogwe is key.

Overall, the Rams are on an upward trend.

2)      Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald wanted Kevin Kolb so badly  that he put him up in his own house, with his own room, for a few days before he was actually traded there. Larry is on the right track. Warner showed that this team just needs a starting QB to put all the pieces together. At running back Beanie Wells needs to prove himself a little bit. The departure of Hightower puts more pressure on him to perform. The drafting of Ryan Williams (2^nd round) might provide some support here. The defense must improve with new coordinator Ray Horton. Hopefully he will bring a little LeBeau magic to the desert. DL Williams, Dockett and Campbell and are the strength of the unit. No doubt. Don’t know any of the linebackers? No one else does either. Porter and Haggans, the two main starters last year, are old. The other two spots are more of a tossup. Wilson (SS) and Rhodes (FS) and Peterson (CB) will have to rise to the occasion this year. Last year, play fell off here.

Overall, a good QB and defense could push them to 8-8.

3)      San Francisco 49ers

This is the one team I would like to be wrong about. But their preseason hasn’t given me much confidence. Harbaugh must develop Smith. Let me say that again. Harbaugh must develop Smith. If that happens, with Frank Gore’s consistent running game, they could have a passable offense. Dixon, Hunter and Miller (FB) could all see time if Gore gets injured (again). Vernon Davis (TE) is the only productive wide out in this unit. Crabtree, Morgon and Ginn must adapt quickly to the West Coast system. Vic Fangio is a student of Dom Capers and will look to develop the same type of system. Smith (DE) is the stat of the time and a handworker. The line isn’t flashy, but might improve. Patrick Willis is the star here. He will help the transition to a new system. Takeo Spike isn’t a bad LB either. The secondary is the weak link here. Clements and Mays struggle with deep coverage. Expect a lot of rotation here.

Overall, Alex Smith and Harbaugh need to become best friends. Now.

4)      Seattle Seahawks

Seattle was a fluke in many ways last year, including beating a Saints team that just fell apart. Pete Carrol has no idea where he is trying to go. They have talent offensively, in Lynch, Rice (WR), Williams (WR) and Miller (TE). But no QB. Jackson is not the answer. He couldn’t even keep a starting job with AP to carry him. This could be ugly fast. The defense runs a hybrid of 4-3/3-4. The line is above average, but owes most of its style to the categorization of the lineman – “Leo” = pass running. Clemons had 11 sacks as the “Leo” last year. The linebackers are missing Lofa Tatupu. Aaron Curry needs to become the player he was advertised as coming out of college. Maybe a second year in the system will help him? The secondary sucks – let’s not sugar coat it. Earl Thomas (S) is the only playmaker back there and has too much to make up for. Trufant, Jennings , Thurmond and Chancellor have never distinguished themselves in any way.

Overall, Seattle needs to find a direction and a quarterback. 

Whoever in the scheduling department came up with this game as the opener is brilliant. The Saints and the Packers -- the past two Super Bowl Champions. Two offensively jacked teams, but yet with defenses to be feared. Perfection on Thursday. However I believe the Packers will win - here's why.
The Super Bowl winners almost always win the opener. I think it's because of the emotion and the adrenaline rush. Also Green Bay has a stronger defense than New Orleans, especially in the secondary. They are capable of controlling Brees. The wild card for both teams is the running game. But because it's a question mark for both teams it won't make a difference. I say this because both have the same chance of suddenly showing up -- slim. If one will break out, it'll be New Orleans. Not a chance against Dom Capers' defense. Regardless I think it will be a close game. Perhaps a Mason Crosby field goal to win it? Just a thought.
Final score - NO 28 GB 31


- Claire

NFC South 2011 Predictions

Here we go -- a division with three potential playoff teams. However, I have faith in New Orleans here. Really. They bounce back really well. Read Drew Brees' book, any body?

NFC SOUTH

1)      New Orleans Saints

Life will once again be a Brees in New Orleans. People are underrating them – big time. The nucleus of their 2009 Super Bowl team remains and the Saints often have a down year then come back with a vengeance. Helping Brees and Payton on offense are Graham (TE), Colston, Henderson, Moore and Meachem (WRs). But most important are the addition of Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles (RBs) to help Thomas. With Bush gone, this could finally be the Saints’ chance for a real power running game. Run sets up the pass. Defensively, the Saints aren’t bad – they just fell apart in that loss to Seattle. On the defensive line, they added Rogers (FA) and Jordon (1^st round) to help Ellis. Will Smith (DE) needs to find the rhythm he had in 2009 (13 sacks, compared to 5.5 last year.) Vilma is the leader of the defense and an incredible middle linebacker., the people around him remain question marks. Casillas, Arnoux or Wilson? Who knows? The secondary of Jenkins, Greer, Porter and Harper should continue to perform to playoff standards.

Overall, don’t count New Orleans out—they could go far with a real running game.

2)      Atlanta Falcons

I don’t think the addition of one wide out is enough to push the Falcons over the edge. What knocked them out last year wasn’t offense—it was nonexistent defense. Matt Ryan has proven himself a franchise quarterback and leads an efficient passing attack. Gonzalez (TE), White, Jenkins and Jones (WRs) all combine into an elite receiving core. If the running game of Turner, Norwood and Rodgers can have the success they had last year, it should open up Ryan’s throwing even more. A rebuilt offensive line will have to prove they’re up to the test. Defensively, the Falcons remain a 4-3 team, relying on power pass rushers like Abraham to  provide the pressure. However, there’s not star to play alongside him and take some of the double teams. The linebackers are a bunch of unknowns, but that doesn’t mean they can’t play well. Remember the 'No-name’ defense of Miami? A few coming back from injuries (Lofton and Weatherspoon) could make a difference. The secondary got torched by Rodgers. Grimes broke out last year – can he continue to develop and bring the rest of the unit with him?

Overall, the Falcons gave up their souls for a WR- I’m not sold that he’s the answer.

3)      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The combination of Josh Freeman (QB), Mike Williams (WR) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) shocked the league last year. Freeman will continue to develop this year and his young wide outs will help him. With defense focusing on Williams, Arrelious Been should be open more and therefore see more of Freeman’s throws. While the skill players on this team are built young, the offensive line is full of veterans ready to anchor the unit. They should open holes for Blount and keep Freeman on his feet. The defense has been nicknamed the ‘Tampa 2.1’ for the mixture of fronts, blitzes and coverage that are new. Once again, this is a unit built young. Draft picks from the last two years will fill the line. McCoy, Price, Clayborn and Bowers. Chemistry will be important here. In the line backing department, they have solid but no fearsome players. The secondary has old man Barber, but could lose Jackson and Talib to off-field issues.

Overall, the Bucs aren’t enough to division but could make another wild card push.

4)      Carolina Panthers

I am not on the Cam Newton bandwagon. He reminds me too much of Vince Young, or even a Ryan Leaf. And that’s pretty much as bad as it gets. Pretty much. That being said, I think they will win more than two games this year. Maybe four or five. They are in a killer division. Williams and Stewart will have to carry this team—which they’ve proven they can. Newton should get used to find Smith, Gettis and Shockey to help take some pressure off the running game, due to the prone-ness for injury. This offense is a wild card, but I’m not solid on a one year turn around. Ron Rivera had a good defense in San Diego and Sean McDermott will be ‘running it’ in Carolina. But he doesn’t have a terrible group to work with. Johnson (DE) is the only bright spot on the line, however. There is the potential for talent to emerge here. Jon Beason is one of the most underrated linebackers in the game. If Davis, Williams and Norwood can pick up, this could be a solid group. The secondary has no one to play the corners—that will be problematic in controlling Brees, Ryan and Freeman (six times a year).

Overall, Carolina is headed in the right direction –if Newton pans out.  

NFC East 2011 Predictions

Here we go people! The season is fast approaching. So, on that note, I will be posting the last three predictions over the next few days. Also, I will have a little bit about the Packers/Saints opener on Thursday. Here's everyone's favorite division -- the one that seems to be able to draw all the attention of the media. Jerry Jones, eat your heart out. 

NFC EAST

1)      Philadelphia Eagles

Dream team much? This could be the year the Eagles finally get over the hump of the NFC Championship game. With Vick running the show on offense, the sky is the limit. If the line can protect him from injury, then he could be even more deadly. LeSean McCoy will be the focal back, with Weaver, Schmitt and Lewis behind him. WRs Jackson, Avant and Maclin should continue to give Vick the weapons he needs to show off his new accuracy. The line is a concern, but newly signed first round pick Danny Watkins should be a start for improvement. New coordinator Juan Castillo looks to cement this unit and create pressure on opposing offenses. Personnel wise they have what they need to be a complete defense. Cullen Jenkins and Trent Cole are there to put quarterbacks on their backs, which they will do with enthusiasm. The largest addition is Nnamdi Asomaga, who joins an already capable secondary. Give Castillo time to figure out how to make all the pieces move in harmony.

Overall, the Eagles have been crowned before the season has even started. If they can put the pieces together in time, they could do it.

2)      New York Giants

The Giants were shut out of the playoffs last year by the Packers. But because the expectations in New York are so high, people say that if they don’t make the playoffs, it’s a failure. New York is good –10-6 isn’t bad. Eli may not be in Brady’s class, but he is a decent QB. However, he must throw less interceptions. Who he is throwing to is more of an issue. Many of his receivers have packed up and left –and where’s the running game? But if Eli can cut down on the INTs, this offense could be good, or passable. The defense has potential, as always. But potential is the key word here. Certain players will have flashes of brilliance—notably Osi Umenyoria. But the defense has not looked good in the preseason and Osi is having a disagreement with the management. Left are Chris Canty, Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul. Not a bad group. LBs need help here, especially because a strong LB core often correlates to a good defense. The secondary is good with Webster, Phillips, Rolle and Ross all returning.

Overall, the Giants should once again be competitive at least, in the playoff hunt.

3)      Dallas Cowboys

Can Jason Garret continue to ride the wave of momentum from the end of last year? I believe he can. Tony Romo is back with a good supporting cast of Witten, Bryant, Austin and even Felix Jones. With Barber gone, the running game is all on Jones’ shoulders. Someone in the front office must believe he can handle it – I’m not sold. Look back at the great Cowboys teams: they have all had a signature back. For me, he’s not that type of back. The defense better be able to back up Rob Ryan’s big talk. This unit has been known to have talent for years now and has been chided for underperforming. Ryan seems to be able to get the most out of the units he works with. Jay Ratliff is strong at NT, but the other linemen are questionable. Ware, James, Brooking and Spencer are the LBs – a pretty decent core. Brooking and Spencer could improve. The secondary is mediocre, but Jenkins, Scandrick and Sensabaugh are all somewhat reliable. Newman is aging, so this group needs support.

Overall, as always the talent is there, but the question becomes can they perform?

4)      Washington Redskins

All my friends in DC are crying out in protest, ‘But our preseason has been so good!’. That’s just it – PRE-season. When games start counting come see me. Grossman or Beck = QB debate? Really? regardless of who is throwing the ball, he needs to find someone to throw to. Moss is aging—he’s not the deep threat he used to be. Armstrong has never quite panned out. Torain has shown he can replace Portis and with Hightower, can be the backs Shanahan wants and needs, for his system to work. Injury free, that is. On defense, there isn’t much to celebrate. Carriker and Bryant were solid, but not standouts on the line. However,  Brain Orakpo (DE, listed) has proved he’s a beast. He can run the defense, but needs a supporting cast around him to take the pressure off. In the secondary new safety Oshiomoho Atogwe is a nice addition to an already decent unit. Landry and Hall put in decent showings every year. Now with Rogers gone, expect less dropped interceptions, but not necessarily more actual interceptions.

Overall, until Syndar gives up the team the Skins will continue to wallow in confusion. 

NFC North Predictions 2011

Now we get to the NFC! Though some may be of the opinion that the NFC is the weaker conference of the two (and this may be true) several teams, including a few in this division should be playoff contenders, or even Super Bowl favorites. 

I also want to go on record saying that the Lions, yes the LIONS, are going to break out this season. 

NFC North

1)      Green Bay Packers
Remember, they didn’t win the division last year. But this year, things should be better, if that’s possible. The Packers won it all last year with an injured core of players. With Rodgers, elite since his jump from behind Favre, at the helm, the offense will perform. With Grant, Finley both coming back, Rodgers can settle in and manage the game. Grant needs to stay healthy and Starks might continue to breakout. With Jennings, Driver and Nelson out there catching passes, Rodgers always has an open target. If the running game can become consistent, then this offense could be hard to stop. Dom Capers' defense was a machine led by Clay Matthews last season. His fellow LBs, Bishop and Hawk, will be the core of this unit. In the secondary, Sam Shields could be the heir for the aging Woodson. Add in Williams and Nick  Collins and the secondary seems good to go for many years. Cullen Jenkins (DT) left, but the remaining line of Raji and Pickett should be passable, if not stellar.

Overall, the Packers, if they can avoid injury, can make another decent playoff run. Repeat, anyone?

2)       Detroit Lions

I’ve been saying this for ages – wake up world, the Lions are good! They’re a team who lost seven games by one score and four of those games by three points or less. They ending last year on a four game win streak. The key to the offense is Matthew Stafford remaining healthy all year long. He will show why he was a number one overall pick this year. Best, a star last year until he was injured, will be complimented in the backfield by draft pick Mikel Leshoure. On the outside you’ve got Johnson, Pettigrew (TE) and draft pick Titus Young. If the offensive line can prove itself and keep Stafford upright, this team can be good. Defense in Detroit = Ndamukong Suh. However, the line backing core needs to improve. DeAndre Levy is good in the middle, but both outside LBs (Carpender and Palmer) need to improve or be replaced. They didn’t draft much in this position (Doug Hogue, 5^th round), so it’ll be interesting to see if the improvement from last year last. Can you name a single player from the secondary? No – probably not. Fix it, Detroit.

Overall, the Lions were right on the edge last year and small improvements on dense with a healthy Stafford could equal more consistent wins.

3)      Minnesota Vikings

The only reason I put them here is McNabb. Favre showed that what this team lacks is a consistent QB. Despite one fluke year in Washington, in Minnesota he has the weapons and support to play better. Adrian Peterson will be the key for success. New coordinator Bill Musgrave will make him the focal point and take pressure off McNabb. There’s not a ton of WRs here, just Harvin, after Rice’s departure. Left are Berrian, Camarillo, Areeneaux, Webb, Shiancoe and Rudolph. If any one of them can have a breakout season, it would make a huge difference. On defense the line needs rebuilding around Jared Allen. If some of the young guys, like Guion, Robison and Ballard can fill those gaps, it might free up Allen more. Henderson, Greenway are the two consistent LBs left – another major gap to fill. Chris Cook (CB) is the only player worth noting in the secondary. Another hole to be fixed.

Overall, the offense could be a bright spot, along with Frazier as the head coach, but the defense needs to be more than Jared Allen.

4)      Chicago Bears

The Bears are in trouble – or Jay Cutler is. I’ve always been a defender of Cutler because he plays with diabetes, but the rest of the league is haunted by the NFC championship games. Forte has proved he’s a good back, but behind him Taylor and Unga are question marks. I don’t think that an aging Roy Williams is the answer at receiver, but he’s probably better than Knox and Hester. However, if the offense is going to succeed under Martz, they need to step in and fix the line to take pressure from Cutler. On defense, the line of Peppers and Idonije is good but needs a supporting cast – lest they get burnt out. Briggs and Urlacher (LBs) are getting older, but not necessarily worse. Once again, depth is needed here, to prevent an injury to one of those guys. The secondary is bad in any position – with Harris, Tillman and Wright. Draft pick Chris Conte (3^rd round FS) might be the nickel, if Moore becomes a starter. Look for Moore and Moore (yes, there are two) to have break out seasons.

Overall, remember the Bears only won three games against teams with winning records last year. Pray for Cutler’s confidence, Bears’ fans. 

AFC West 2011 Predictions

Here's the last set! Sorry there was such a gap - I just got to college and finished all of my orientation. :) Enjoy it - though I'll probably do a small piece on just Tim Tebow later.... 

Also, the Colts signed Kerry Collins? Smart move... 

AFC WEST

1)      San Diego Chargers

San Diego, it’s your time. Seize the moment. Please. We all know about the offense under Philip River’s command. All of his key receivers return; Gates (TE), Jackson, Crayton and even Floyd. The only real question mark in this side of the ball is the running game. Ryan Mathews was supposed to be the answer, or at least part of it, last year. Hopefully, if the injuries and fumbles disappear, he can be the elite back they want him to be. Mike Tolbert was the leading rusher last year and should be a compliment for Mathews. Even with the running back questions last year, the offense was ranked first. As was the dense, though many sense that’s misleading. Ron Rivera departed to be head man in Caroline, and it should be interesting to see if the unit doesn’t suffer without him. The secondary of Weddle, Sanders and Jammer should provide leadership and strong play to break out Stuckey and Cason. The linebackers, besides Philips, are mostly young and untested. Burnett will have to bring Butler and Mouton, each of whom has never seen a snap in the NFL. The defensive line is the weak link here and unproductive.

Overall, the Chargers can at least win the division, if not  more.

2)      Kansas City Chiefs

People say last year was a fluke for the Chiefs, that this year the schedule will be too tough for them. What people seem to be ignoring is that the Chiefs have stars on every offensive level. Cassel is a solid quarterback and leader; Charles almost lead the league in rushing last year and Bowe finally got his breakout season. It’s unlikely that all of these things are a fluke for them. The only question here is the line, which is trying to get younger. If they can keep Cassel on his feet, the whole unit should be pretty good. Romeo Crennel has proved a decent defensive coordinator last year. The secondary is the start of this unit with Berry having a breakout season. Lewis, Flowers and Carr round out the unit and each have talent. More of a concern are the LBs and DL. Gleen Dorsey (DE) needs to improve to anchor the line. LB Hali had a breakout, AFC leading, 14.5 sack performance last year. Repeat, anyone?

Overall, the Chiefs need to work through a tough schedule to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.

3)      Oakland Raiders

The Raiders went 6-0 in the division last year, but struggled to win many other games. Jason Cambell is not the long term answer at quarterback. For some reason, they shipped out Gradkowski, who always showed signs of being the real answer. At least McFadden has proven himself a top tier back – that should take some pressure off whoever is under center. As far as receivers go, the Raiders are fast, but not super talented. Everyone knows Al Davis loves a fast player, but Murphy, Heyward-Bay and Schilens have all fallen short.  Hope that Ford becomes a central part of this offense. As far as the defense goes, the Raiders are not in terrible shape. Seymour anchors a decent line, which should see better production under 2^nd year coordinator Bresnahan. For the linebackers, McClain should show continued improvement in this second year. Wimbly proved that he could provide sacks last season, and should do the same again. In  the secondary, the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha could be disastrous. It should be interesting to see how the unit copes.

Overall, the Raiders will continue to show flashes of being what Al Davis imagines they are, but still are not. A new head coach every year doesn’t help.

4)      Denver Broncos

A new head coach and a famous GM can’t solve Denver’s problems in a year. Pick a QB – and let it be Tim Tebow. He’s the ‘future’, and might as well start now. We’re all waiting for him to start. (Or you could play Brady Quinn, but that’s just ‘cause I love him.) Look for Moreno to start in the backfield, if he can stay healthy. Or screw having a RB and just let Tebow do it all. What do you have to lose? Whoever is QB, has some very cool receivers. The key is Lloyd, who, if he performs, can open the field for Gaffney, Royal and Decker. The offense has some high potential here. The dense is making a switch back to 4-3, and drafting Von Millar was a good start. His aggressiveness should help a defense that was 31^st against the pass last season. No names on the line and an aging secondary can’t help this unit go from worst to first any time soon. Denver has looked to the future. Fox, Elway and Xanders hopefully understand this. Don’t count them out too long – remember Fox and 1-15 Carolina to the Super Bowl?

Overall, don’t hold your breath for a transformation this year. Talk to me in a few years.