AFC West 2011 Predictions

Here's the last set! Sorry there was such a gap - I just got to college and finished all of my orientation. :) Enjoy it - though I'll probably do a small piece on just Tim Tebow later.... 

Also, the Colts signed Kerry Collins? Smart move... 

AFC WEST

1)      San Diego Chargers

San Diego, it’s your time. Seize the moment. Please. We all know about the offense under Philip River’s command. All of his key receivers return; Gates (TE), Jackson, Crayton and even Floyd. The only real question mark in this side of the ball is the running game. Ryan Mathews was supposed to be the answer, or at least part of it, last year. Hopefully, if the injuries and fumbles disappear, he can be the elite back they want him to be. Mike Tolbert was the leading rusher last year and should be a compliment for Mathews. Even with the running back questions last year, the offense was ranked first. As was the dense, though many sense that’s misleading. Ron Rivera departed to be head man in Caroline, and it should be interesting to see if the unit doesn’t suffer without him. The secondary of Weddle, Sanders and Jammer should provide leadership and strong play to break out Stuckey and Cason. The linebackers, besides Philips, are mostly young and untested. Burnett will have to bring Butler and Mouton, each of whom has never seen a snap in the NFL. The defensive line is the weak link here and unproductive.

Overall, the Chargers can at least win the division, if not  more.

2)      Kansas City Chiefs

People say last year was a fluke for the Chiefs, that this year the schedule will be too tough for them. What people seem to be ignoring is that the Chiefs have stars on every offensive level. Cassel is a solid quarterback and leader; Charles almost lead the league in rushing last year and Bowe finally got his breakout season. It’s unlikely that all of these things are a fluke for them. The only question here is the line, which is trying to get younger. If they can keep Cassel on his feet, the whole unit should be pretty good. Romeo Crennel has proved a decent defensive coordinator last year. The secondary is the start of this unit with Berry having a breakout season. Lewis, Flowers and Carr round out the unit and each have talent. More of a concern are the LBs and DL. Gleen Dorsey (DE) needs to improve to anchor the line. LB Hali had a breakout, AFC leading, 14.5 sack performance last year. Repeat, anyone?

Overall, the Chiefs need to work through a tough schedule to prove that last year wasn’t a fluke.

3)      Oakland Raiders

The Raiders went 6-0 in the division last year, but struggled to win many other games. Jason Cambell is not the long term answer at quarterback. For some reason, they shipped out Gradkowski, who always showed signs of being the real answer. At least McFadden has proven himself a top tier back – that should take some pressure off whoever is under center. As far as receivers go, the Raiders are fast, but not super talented. Everyone knows Al Davis loves a fast player, but Murphy, Heyward-Bay and Schilens have all fallen short.  Hope that Ford becomes a central part of this offense. As far as the defense goes, the Raiders are not in terrible shape. Seymour anchors a decent line, which should see better production under 2^nd year coordinator Bresnahan. For the linebackers, McClain should show continued improvement in this second year. Wimbly proved that he could provide sacks last season, and should do the same again. In  the secondary, the loss of Nnamdi Asomugha could be disastrous. It should be interesting to see how the unit copes.

Overall, the Raiders will continue to show flashes of being what Al Davis imagines they are, but still are not. A new head coach every year doesn’t help.

4)      Denver Broncos

A new head coach and a famous GM can’t solve Denver’s problems in a year. Pick a QB – and let it be Tim Tebow. He’s the ‘future’, and might as well start now. We’re all waiting for him to start. (Or you could play Brady Quinn, but that’s just ‘cause I love him.) Look for Moreno to start in the backfield, if he can stay healthy. Or screw having a RB and just let Tebow do it all. What do you have to lose? Whoever is QB, has some very cool receivers. The key is Lloyd, who, if he performs, can open the field for Gaffney, Royal and Decker. The offense has some high potential here. The dense is making a switch back to 4-3, and drafting Von Millar was a good start. His aggressiveness should help a defense that was 31^st against the pass last season. No names on the line and an aging secondary can’t help this unit go from worst to first any time soon. Denver has looked to the future. Fox, Elway and Xanders hopefully understand this. Don’t count them out too long – remember Fox and 1-15 Carolina to the Super Bowl?

Overall, don’t hold your breath for a transformation this year. Talk to me in a few years. 

AFC South 2011 Predictions

Here are more predictions. I'm trying to get them all out here before the season starts and I go to college. Let me know what you think - I've fixed the comments so that anyone can comment (no ID needed!).

AFC SOUTH

1.       Indianapolis Colts

Yes, the Colts. However, Peyton Manning’s questionable health throws doubt on this. Still, the chances are he will be 100% for the regular season, even if he doesn’t play at all in the preseason. Let’s be honest here – he doesn’t need it and Painter does. If it’s painter taking snaps from Saturday, be concerned. Be very concerned. Injured players like Clark and Addai will be back and are ready to compliment Manning. Maybe Donald Brown will help the oft-injured Addai create at least an illusion of a running game. No promises there though. The only issue on offense could be Manning’s age. The other day, after signing the new contract, he said he was a “Colt for life”. It’s a five year contract. You figure it out. the defense is always the weak link on the Colts teams. The loss of Clint Session to the Jags really hurts here. They cut Bob Sanders as well, which is understandable considering his injuries. Stars Dwight Freeny and Robert Mathis anchor this unit. They didn’t do much in the draft, using two picks on defensive players Drake Nevis (round 3, DT) and Chris Rucker (round 6, CB). But because they only had five picks, perhaps this is more than it seems. Special teams equal two words – Adam Vinatieri.

Overall , who needs a defense when Peyton Manning can put up 30+ points by himself?

2.       Houston Texans

The Texans have long been a team on the rise, often falling short of expectations. After an encouraging start last year, they finished a disappointing 6-10. Their 3^rd ranked offense features Schaub (QB), Foster (RB) and Johnson (WR). Own Daniels isn’t a bad tight end either. But Schaub and Johnson must remain healthy as the cornerstones of this high powered offense. Most importantly, Arian Foster had to prove he isn’t a one year wonder. Teams will prepare more for him now. Maybe this will open holes for Derrick Ward, former Buc and Giant. Foster’s performance, if consistent, could take some of the pressure off of Schaub’s arm and force the defense to play honest, cutting down the sacks. Defense killed the Texans last year. New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will switch to a modified 3-4. He had a big challenge to fill, making the 30^th defense better. Former first overall pick Mario Williams will help him. The linebackers are okay with Brian Crushing at the helm. The biggest hole is the secondary, which was the worst in the league last year. Maybe they can find an answer in free agency.

Overall , the Texans are a team on the rise. They’re not ready to take the crown from the Colts. Phillips must fix the secondary to control Manning, Brees, Ryan, Flacco and Freeman.

3.       Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags are a team stuck in mediocrity. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be the heart of this team, and the club showed no faith in Garrard by drafting Gabbert in the first round. Garrard and Del Rio’s jobs are on the line this season. Garrard’s got the tools and players to run this offense, but he lacks the consistency of an elite pro-quarterback. He can’t rely on MJD because that makes them too predictable and one dimensional, which is the kiss of death for any team. If the Jags are lucky, Gabbert will provide healthy competition for Garrard, rather than freeze him in a mountain of lack of confidence. As much of a classy guy as Jack Del Rio is, his defense still isn’t that good. Ranked 28^th last season, it doesn’t do credit to the hard hitting former linebacker that is their coach. They need to make moves at each of the three major levels, which they have tried to do by bringing in linebackers  Posluszny (Buffalo) and Session (Indy).  Stealing Dawan Landry from Baltimore will also probably help. But I still don’t think these moves are enough to completely fix the problem. Talent wasn’t a huge issue – not as much as underperforming players. Finally, the defensive signal calling has been given to Mel Tucker, rather than Del Rio, which may or may not make a difference. The personnel all must be fixed first.

Overall, if the defense and Garrard don’t impress this year, not only will the Jags remain average, but QB and head coach could be  unemployed.

4.       Tennessee Titans

The Titans are reeling. The departure of ‘franchise quarterback’ Vince Young and the only head coach in team history, Jeff Fisher, left the organization confused. The only bright spot for the Titans is Chris Johnson (RB). At QB, they found Matt Hasselbeck, who is older and showed only short periods of excellent play in Seattle (a worse division, as well). Behind him are Rusty Smith and Jake Locker, who will eventually be given the keys. They have the right idea by bringing in Hasselbeck to teach Locker, but that will take time and probably not have an effect this year. A decent wide receiving core of Britt, Washington and Gage might help who ever ends up playing. Once again, Chris Johnson plays on this team. At least they won’t be completely boring. The defense has a new coordinator, Jerry Grey, who is supposed to be more aggressive with the Blitz. They have the aggressive CBs (Finnegan and Verner), but look for Chris Hope to play closer to the line of scrimmage. In the end, however, the defense probably won’t be that much better than their 26^th ranking last year. In a schedule that features seven different potentially high flying QBs, the defense will have trouble keeping the lack luster offense in the game.

Overall, the Titans have too many growing pains to be close to a contender this year. Chalk this one up as a ‘rebuilding year’ and hold on to Chris Johnson, Titans fans. 

AFC East 2011 Predictions

Here are more predictions. I'll be adding more now that the lockout is over and things start to come into a clearer picture. Let me know if you think I'm on point! 

AFC EAST

1.       New England Patriots – 12-4

I know it’s typical to put the Patriots at the top of the East, but with Brady and Belichik still at the helm, it seems inevitable. Brady can put up numbers with ‘no names’ at every position. Woodhead, Welker and Branch all return for another year in the same system.  And now they are joined by Ochocinco, the circus. I think Belichik can keep in him line and he provides another receiving threat for Brady. Hopefully the combination of Woodhead and the law firm (BenJarvis-GreenEllis) will give life to a running game and take some of the load off Brady’s shoulders. The defense is still young, but Belichik created success last year with a simple system. This year, with most players in their second and third years, expect the unit to be more confident. The packages will probably be more exotic, creating more trouble for opposing offenses. Even last year, they led the league in interceptions and turn over differential. Keep an eye on Jerod Mayo (3^rd year ILB), Albert Hanyesworth (newly acquired DL) and Brandon Meriweather (5^th year SS) to anchor the defenses on all three levels. I say Hanyesworth, even after the fiasco in Washington because of the potential he showed years before in Tennessee.

Overall – There are a few ‘trap games’ on the schedule (Pittsburgh, Giants and Philly) as well as the Jets (x2) and Indy, but other than that the Patriots should breeze through another year.

2.       New York Jets – 10-6

The Jets are once again calling for a championship, but this time they are not sneaking up on anyone. The first Rex Ryan year they made the playoffs because Indy decided to lay down for them. The second year, they showed their own merits, but still came out with only a 11-5 record, didn’t win the division and hoisted neither the Hunt nor Lombardi trophies. Expect more of the same from the Jets. Sanchez has yet to convince me that he can carry this team, and has lost a key receiver in Braylon Edwards. Yes, they got Plaxico, but he’s older and doesn’t know the system yet. Also, Brad Smith has packed up to go upstate which is a huge loss for them. The RBs are questionable, with LT not panning out long term. The Jets offense ranked 11^th last year – don’t expect that number to rise. The defense ranked 3^rd overall, but didn’t stand out in any of the categories that Rex Ryan claims to love, such as interceptions, sacks and points allowed. Woody (LB), Jenkins (DT), Taylor (DE) and Gholston (DE) have all left as of right now for free agency. The Jets need to get younger on defense, especially the front three. The second remains the best part of the unit.

Overall, the lockout hurt the Jets the most because it allowed several of their key players to leave, due to their habits of signing aging players to short contracts.

3.       Buffalo Bills – 8-8

I know that this is a stretch, but the Bills are a team that could surprise everyone this year.  Their record last year didn’t reflect how good they really were, losing five games by less than 5 points. Gailey seems to think Fitzpatrick is the answer at QB, but they still brought in Thigpin from Miami. We’ll see how that pans out. The emergence of WRs Evans and Johnson should help him. Most importantly, they acquired Brad Smith through free agency. This should give them the x-factor that they’ve been missing for this whole time. C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson need to team up and become the one two punch the Bills need to supplement the sub-standard passing game. The defense is in the second year of being a 3-4, drafted Marcell Dareus (DT) and signed Nick Barnett (LB) from Green Bay to help. The secondary proved to be the best piece of this unit, ranking 3^rd against the pass. Unfortunately it remains to be seen if Galiey had the personal to run the 3-4. It’s up to  George Edwards (defensive coordinator) to make it work. If the defense can keep them in games, perhaps the offense can find some sparks they were missing last year and win some of the close/overtime games.

Overall, don’t think that I’m saying the Bills will rise above mediocrity, but they won’t be as tragic as last year.

4.       Miami Dolphins - 4-12

The Dolphins are in disgrace; they need to find all their skill positions, were caught coach hunting while they still had one and won only one home game. Now they really have no answer at QB. They haven’t gotten a major one in free agency, though they did sign Matt Moore from the Panthers. Whoever ends up playing will do so without the use of WR Brandon Marshall, who had found himself in some off season trouble.  But Bess, Hartline and Fasano should give whoever is at the helm some help in the receiving department. Both running backs, Williams and Brown, are gone and Reggie Bush is now expected to replace them. He can’t do it by himself – he’s shown he’s not that kind of back in New Orleans. The defense wasn’t terrible last year, ranking 6^th overall. However, turnovers, or lack of them was an issue. If the secondary of Smith, Davis and Allen, with bell’s consistency, can generate more interceptions, then the unit could be good.  Karlos Dansby produced last year and should remain a strong leader. The defense is the best thing this team has. Finally, special teams must improve to not give up close games and avoid another debacle like the New England game.

Overall, there are too many ifs for the Dolphins this year. A piece of advice – stop kicking field goals, go for Touchdowns or look for a new job, Soprano. 

AFC North 2011 Predictions

Okay, in light of the current lockout, I wanted to wait for it to end. However, every day news of more delays come and I've given up hoping that anything can get passed by the owners, plaintiffs and players in the next few days. 

So here are my predictions for the AFC North. I hope that you enjoy them. 

AFC NORTH

1.       Baltimore Ravens – 13-3

Reasons – The Ravens have been poised for a few years now, since the introduction of Harbaugh and Flacco, to make the leap. After playoff appearances in the last three seasons, coupled with close losses at the end of these runs, the consistency is there. However, the Ravens need two things – more explosive play from Flacco and to cut down on costly mistakes. It could be said that Flacco is still developing as a quarterback, but the drafting on WR Torrey Smith should give him one more receiving threat. Secondly, they’ve lost big games, notably to Pittsburgh and one to New England last year, because of mistakes – fumbles and interceptions. If the offense can become more explosive and cut down on mistakes, it will make it easier for the aging defense to win it all. Speaking of the defense, though Ray Lewis is a young 36, the rest of the corps are getting older. The secondary, a major problem last year, was bolstered by the addition of first round pick Jimmy Smith. Ed Reed should be healthy to continue applying pressure.

Overall – The Ravens can make the leap to a championship, but they better hurry because the window for the defense is closing.

2.       Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4

Reasons – It’s always a tossup between the Ravens and the Steelers for the AFC North crown. However, a Super B owl loss is always demoralizing for a team. Rarely do past Super Bowl losers come back with a championship season the next year. The Steelers also have a habit of swaying between mediocrity and glory. Though their record from the last five seasons it 51- 29, those reasons include a 9-7 and 8-8 season. All that being said, Pittsburgh has an easy schedule this year, the only teams with winning records being Baltimore (x2), Indianapolis, Kansas City and New England. Besides this encouraging schedule, Pittsburgh also returns almost its entire starting roster from last year. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger won’t have any suspensions and could be poised for a career year. Perhaps the addition of Plaxico Burress could help him? Round two? The defense is always fierce, lead by Harrison, Woodley and Polamalu. Polamalu needs to not have any injury issues or miss games. A rule change about hitting the qaurterback should quite Harrison and sure him that hard hits are still part of the league. Regardless of the drama off the field, the unit thrives under Hall of Famer Dick LeBeau.

Overall – The Steelers could be a playoff team once again, if they can get over the Super Bowl letdown.

3.       Cleveland Browns – 7-9

Reasons – The Browns have spent the last few years searching for a quick solution. Now with a General Manager (Holmgren) and a Coach (Shurmur), who both believe in the West Coast system, some consistency may be on the horizon. Colt McCoy will have to finish developing, but has a potential running game behind him. Peyton Hillis had a breakout season last year, though durability could be an issue. Own Marcelic could help take the load off. They lack a stand out receiver, because Cribbs is still really a return man and may leave as a free agent. Ben Watson is a good tight end and should bolster the new West Coast offense. If the lockout ends soon, and Shurmur can get together with McCoy and teach the offense, they could finally have an identity. The defense is mediocre and new coordinator Dick Jauron is switching it to the 4-3. The secondary is known as the ‘corner stone’ of this unity and might be able to help them. However, transitions are never easy – time will show if the 4-3 is better suited to the current Browns.

Overall – The Browns had flashes of brilliance in games against New England and New Orleans last year. However a .500 season might be a stretch for these guys. One more ‘rebuilding’ year, boys.

4.       Cincinnati Bengals – 4-12

Reasons – the Cincinnati Bengals have become such a show over the last few years, it’s a wonder Marvin Lewis hasn’t been fired for allowing it to go on. Now the loud mouths are on the way out and the rookies are in. Dalton (quarterback) and AJ Green (Wide receiver) are expected to fill the gaps of Palmer and ‘T.Ocho’. Maybe one day they can, but with the lockout dragging on, every day they lose of training camp makes it more and more unlikely that they will do so immediately. Until then, the offense will rely on Cedric Benson, who once again found himself in legal trouble and may have a suspension coming. He also needs to be re-signed as soon as the lockout ends. He’s capable and could really help give the offense a rock to start on. If these three can’t get something going, Marvin Lewis may be jobless. The defensive unit should continue to progress under Mike Zimmer. They’ve had some ups and downs over the past few years, but have generally been good. Better than the offense, though that’s not saying much. There was a little fall off last year, but it needs to become consistent and give the offense the help it needs. The Bengals have to show that they’re more than reality T.V. If things don’t change this year, then the management may finally cancel the current regime.

Overall – Don’t hope for much from these Bengals. It’s been a few chaotic years and one down, but calmer year, will be better in the long run. 

Lockout 101

Define lockout: The NFL lockout is a measure imposed on the players by the owners. It’s a response to having no CBA (collective bargaining agreement) in place. It essentially puts a freeze on all NFL team operations. It is different from a strike, which is started by the players.

Define CBA: CBA stands for collective bargaining agreement. The first CBA was created in 1968, but the one that just expired was created in 1993. The collective bargaining agreement is a legal document between the NFL owners and the NFLPA (National Football League Players Association). It deals with financial issues and in many ways acts as a contract between all players and the owners. We’ll discuss the specifics of it later in this article.

Define NFLPA: The National Football League Players Association is a labor union. It acts as a go-between, or representative body, for all the NFL players. Rookies are not members of the NFLPA because technically they are not NFL players yet. When the union decertifies it means that because it is no longer a ‘union’, it can sue the league as a professional body and to resolve issues. Right now there is an antitrust suit going on between the players and the league.

A brief bit of history: This isn’t the first time there have been labor issues in the NFL. There have been three previous major strikes (1974, 1982 and 1987) and one decertification (1987). People often forget this because the current CBA had been in place since 1993 and the younger generation, such as myself, doesn’t know about the past history. It is a good sign that the lockout will end, and probably soon. The maximum number of missed games was four in ’87.

The issues:

There are three general categories that current issues can fall under. Keep in mind that there are not simply three issues and this division is my own personal way of explaining it.

1.       Financial –

a.       Salary cap is always an issue for the owners, who don’t want to find themselves paying exorbitant amounts for money. The players obviously want more money, but the owners will fight hard against the possibility of still higher salaries. A general salary cap help even the playing field for teams who don’t make as much. Basically any team not the Dallas Cowboys or Washington Redskins. If you want an example of what football might look like with no salary cap, look to major league baseball. Teams like the Red Sox or Yankees can consistently buy the best players. In my opinion, football needs a salary cap to keep each season interesting and keep the possibility of ‘worst to first’ always on the table. A minor segment of the salary cap issue is the concept of a rookie salary cap. Both the owners and the players are in agreement that untested rookies making more than proven veterans is a problem. A rookie cap would also prevent another JaMarcus Russell thirty million dollar waste. Because of the agreement on both sides, and the fact that the rookies have no power at the table, this will probably become part of the new CBA. We’ve seen the last of the giant rookie contracts – sorry Cam Newton.

b.      Another financial issue is ‘opening the books’. The players believe that the owners have been hiding their true revenues. When the antitrust suit was filed, this was one of the main grievances. It is questionable when the owners refuse to completely open the books from the last ten years to the players. After all, the owners owe their money to the players. The owners continual refusal to be completely open had the players frustrated.

c.       This leads into the last financial issue – revenue sharing. Revenue sharing is how the final profits are divided between the players and owners. The NFL is now a nine billion dollar industry and the players want their share. Right now they take 59.6 percent, which the owners feel is too much. However, the owners skim one billion off the top for expenses – stadium and facility maintenance, etc. At this point (July 7, 2011) there are rumors that the NFL and the NFLPA are close to reaching a settlement on this issue. The figures haven’t been released, but this is the closest they appear to have been to getting an actual deal done. This is one of the foremost issues and the one that has received most of the media coverage. I’m hesitant to say that these rumors signify a breakthrough. Never the less, both sides would be crazy to leave nine billion dollars on the table.

2.       Season Length –

a.       The owners want 18 games; the players don’t. Roger Goodell has come out and said that either way is still a 20 game format (18 regular season games and two preseason games vs. 16 regular season games and four preseason games). Everyone knows that two preseason games are not the same as two regular season ones. Starts don’t even play more than a series or two in the final two preseason games. Owner Dan Rooney (Pittsburgh) has the right idea – he said that he doesn’t support an 18 game season because the players don’t want it and he’d rather make less money than force it down the players’ throats. An 18 game season would hurt player longevity and raise issues about salaries. Say a player makes a million dollars a year, which is $62,000 a games in the current 16 game format. If there are 18 games, then does he make $62,500 a game (totaling $1,125,000 a year) or one million dollars overall ($55,555 a game)? Not a huge difference, but if you’re Tom Brady or Peyton Manning making 15 or 16 million a year, the gap becomes larger.

3.       Health benefits for NFL Alumni-

a.       This issue has been somewhat pushed to the side by the media and the owners, but for the players it remains an important topic. Drew Brees is the most vocal current player I’ve heard on this issue.  The players want bigger pensions and a larger health care fund. Disability issues fall here too – but it all becomes a money issue for the owners. The players basically want the owners to put away more money for the players’ health fund each year. Not every player in the NFL makes millions (minimum wage is $325,000) or plays for 15 years (players typically last four or five years). If you want an example of why these improved funds and benefits are needed, look to John Mackey’s story. He died this week and was a hall of fame TE for the Baltimore Colts in the 60s and early 70s. At the age of 62, he developed dementia and died at 69. His wife of 40 years had to go back to work as a flight attendant to pay the bills. I think everyone, myself included, needs to take a closer look at the long term health ramifications of the NFL. Improved helmets will help, but nothing can ever take the danger out of the game.

What happens if a CBA doesn’t get done?

There’s not a much chance of the owners being able to bring in the ‘scabs’, as happened in ’82 and ’87. Scabs are players who didn’t make the team and will play regardless of what the stars are doing. However, it basically boils down to the fact that NFL events will start to be missed – starting with the preseason hall of fame game in a month.

What is Goodell’s role?

Goodell has power, but not in relation to this. The owners pay him and he has to go along with them – he can’t sign a CBA because of his figurehead status. He acts as a representative for the owners. In many ways, he’s supposed to be the middle ground here.

Will they play?

In the end, I think so. Think of the lockout like a seesaw. Right now, the owners have the leverage. But when the players start missing games and the owners start losing money, the seesaw will rock back to the players’ side and they’ll have the power. Even now, there finally seems to be a sense of urgency between the owners, Goodell and DeMaurice Smith (head of the NFLPA).

Please check out nflalumni.org for more information about players’ lives post NFL and what they want to change.

Recommended reading – Brand NFL, by Michael Oriard.