AFC SOUTH
1. Indianapolis Colts
Yes, the Colts. However, Peyton Manning’s questionable health throws doubt on this. Still, the chances are he will be 100% for the regular season, even if he doesn’t play at all in the preseason. Let’s be honest here – he doesn’t need it and Painter does. If it’s painter taking snaps from Saturday, be concerned. Be very concerned. Injured players like Clark and Addai will be back and are ready to compliment Manning. Maybe Donald Brown will help the oft-injured Addai create at least an illusion of a running game. No promises there though. The only issue on offense could be Manning’s age. The other day, after signing the new contract, he said he was a “Colt for life”. It’s a five year contract. You figure it out. the defense is always the weak link on the Colts teams. The loss of Clint Session to the Jags really hurts here. They cut Bob Sanders as well, which is understandable considering his injuries. Stars Dwight Freeny and Robert Mathis anchor this unit. They didn’t do much in the draft, using two picks on defensive players Drake Nevis (round 3, DT) and Chris Rucker (round 6, CB). But because they only had five picks, perhaps this is more than it seems. Special teams equal two words – Adam Vinatieri.
Overall , who needs a defense when Peyton Manning can put up 30+ points by himself?
2. Houston Texans
The Texans have long been a team on the rise, often falling short of expectations. After an encouraging start last year, they finished a disappointing 6-10. Their 3rd ranked offense features Schaub (QB), Foster (RB) and Johnson (WR). Own Daniels isn’t a bad tight end either. But Schaub and Johnson must remain healthy as the cornerstones of this high powered offense. Most importantly, Arian Foster had to prove he isn’t a one year wonder. Teams will prepare more for him now. Maybe this will open holes for Derrick Ward, former Buc and Giant. Foster’s performance, if consistent, could take some of the pressure off of Schaub’s arm and force the defense to play honest, cutting down the sacks. Defense killed the Texans last year. New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will switch to a modified 3-4. He had a big challenge to fill, making the 30th defense better. Former first overall pick Mario Williams will help him. The linebackers are okay with Brian Crushing at the helm. The biggest hole is the secondary, which was the worst in the league last year. Maybe they can find an answer in free agency.
Overall , the Texans are a team on the rise. They’re not ready to take the crown from the Colts. Phillips must fix the secondary to control Manning, Brees, Ryan, Flacco and Freeman.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are a team stuck in mediocrity. Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be the heart of this team, and the club showed no faith in Garrard by drafting Gabbert in the first round. Garrard and Del Rio’s jobs are on the line this season. Garrard’s got the tools and players to run this offense, but he lacks the consistency of an elite pro-quarterback. He can’t rely on MJD because that makes them too predictable and one dimensional, which is the kiss of death for any team. If the Jags are lucky, Gabbert will provide healthy competition for Garrard, rather than freeze him in a mountain of lack of confidence. As much of a classy guy as Jack Del Rio is, his defense still isn’t that good. Ranked 28th last season, it doesn’t do credit to the hard hitting former linebacker that is their coach. They need to make moves at each of the three major levels, which they have tried to do by bringing in linebackers Posluszny (Buffalo) and Session (Indy). Stealing Dawan Landry from Baltimore will also probably help. But I still don’t think these moves are enough to completely fix the problem. Talent wasn’t a huge issue – not as much as underperforming players. Finally, the defensive signal calling has been given to Mel Tucker, rather than Del Rio, which may or may not make a difference. The personnel all must be fixed first.
Overall, if the defense and Garrard don’t impress this year, not only will the Jags remain average, but QB and head coach could be unemployed.
4. Tennessee Titans
The Titans are reeling. The departure of ‘franchise quarterback’ Vince Young and the only head coach in team history, Jeff Fisher, left the organization confused. The only bright spot for the Titans is Chris Johnson (RB). At QB, they found Matt Hasselbeck, who is older and showed only short periods of excellent play in Seattle (a worse division, as well). Behind him are Rusty Smith and Jake Locker, who will eventually be given the keys. They have the right idea by bringing in Hasselbeck to teach Locker, but that will take time and probably not have an effect this year. A decent wide receiving core of Britt, Washington and Gage might help who ever ends up playing. Once again, Chris Johnson plays on this team. At least they won’t be completely boring. The defense has a new coordinator, Jerry Grey, who is supposed to be more aggressive with the Blitz. They have the aggressive CBs (Finnegan and Verner), but look for Chris Hope to play closer to the line of scrimmage. In the end, however, the defense probably won’t be that much better than their 26th ranking last year. In a schedule that features seven different potentially high flying QBs, the defense will have trouble keeping the lack luster offense in the game.
Overall, the Titans have too many growing pains to be close to a contender this year. Chalk this one up as a ‘rebuilding year’ and hold on to Chris Johnson, Titans fans.
I would love nothing more than to say that this is the year the Texans take the South from the Colts, but you're right. As long as Peyton is in the picture, it will take a stellar defense to take the division. I have a lot of faith that Wade Phillips can create that kind of defense, but not in his first year, even with Mario Williams in the new 3-4. I think they nab a wildcard spot, but with a schedule like their's it will be tough for the new defense to do anything more than fight to stay on their feet.
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