2013 NFC North Predictions

1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers under-performed last year. Yes, they made the playoffs, but they didn't win the division. And they got knocked out by the 49ers. The offense's production fell off and the defense couldn't make a stop when they needed to. Letting San Fran put up 45 points is not good. They haven't had too much player movement, besides the departures of S Woodson, WR Jennings and C Saturday (who was injured much of last season anyway.) However, they also don't have any notable pick ups. The only things this team needs to do is perform up to expectations. But that is easier said than done.

2. Detroit Lions
I put the Lions here last year and they disappointed me. But I've liked what I've seen from them so far in the preseason and have high hopes for them this year. This is another team in the division that far under-performed compared to the level of talent on their roster. Stafford, Johnson and the new addition of Reggie Bush should be a lethal combination. Should be. The defense must improve. The addition of S Quin from Houston should help as well as building through the draft with CB Slay. The Lions lost many games last year either on the final drive or by 7 points or less. If they can find some discipline they can take the league by storm again. Otherwise Schwartz's job might be in question.

3. Minnesota Vikings
It is tough to downplay any team with Adrian Peterson on it. But Christian Ponder has only shown flashes of brilliance and must improve if this team is to have long term success. Losing WR Harvin is a blow, but picking up WR Jennings should give them more stability and less injuries to the position. I just don't think that the Vikings have the ability to compete with the other teams in their division, let alone in the league. They may make playoffs again, though I am doubtful. Defense must improve especially against the pass, which hurt them significantly last year. Lesile Frazier is a defensively minded head coach and he needs to show it.

4. Chicago Bears
The Bears had 10 wins last year, but didn't make playoffs and the result was the firing of their head coach. Now there's a new man in tow, Marc Trestman, from the Canadian football league. I'm not sure if he's prepared for the speed and competition at the NFL level. Cutler has improved and Brandon Marshall has settled down and become a reliable receiver. The offensive line must improve and keep Culter on his feet. Blocking for Matt Forte is also incredibly important, as he can be their strongest offensive weapon. The defense ranked highly last year (5th in the NFL), but it will be interesting to see how they perform without the leadership of LB Brain Urlacher, who left discontented with the team and management. Though he may have been aging, there is no replacement for the leadership. 

AFC West 2013 Predictions

1. Denver Broncos
Though Denver is the easy choice here, it is not like this team hasn't made changes during the off-season. After what one might call a 'lucky' loss to the Ravens in the post season, Denver reloaded...on offense. Bringing in Wes Welker (WR) and Monte Ball (RB) will give Peyton more weapons in an already powerful aresenal. However, the defense has serious problems, including the losses of DE Dumervil, DT Bannan and LB Williams. Also, Von Miller, LB, has been suspended for the first six games of the season, which will do more than hurt. But as always, with Peyton Manning on offense, the team will have enough firepower to compensate for a perhaps lacking defense.

2. Kansas City Chiefs
They are my 'sleeper' pick this year. The Chiefs had plenty of talent last year with six Pro Bowl players on the roster. That talent never materialized and trouble off the field gave the Chiefs some unwanted attention. But with Andy Reid at the helm and Alex Smith to lead the offense, the rest of the talent should fall into line. Reid is notorious for developing QBs and struggling offenses and building consistent success. The Chiefs never lacked weapons -- it was more the execution. Remember, this team won the division in 2010 and can count on seeing major improvement this season.

3. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are on their last legs. In fact, some people would say that the window for their championship run has closed. I believe this, to a degree. Philip Rivers is not past his prime, but he does not have much talent around him. TE Gates is always consistent, but RB Matthews has under-performed and been injury prone. Unfortunately, they haven't added many offensive pieces, except to grab Danny Woodhead from the Patriots. The defense ranked well last year (9th in the NFL), but lost many key pieces including S Bigby, CB Cason, CB Jammer, LB Phillips and LB Spikes. Only bringing in CB Cox (from W&M!) and drafting LB T'eo doesn't seem to fill those gaps. A new coaching staff is in for a rebuilding year.

4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders have been out of the playoffs for longer than anyone in Oakland would care to remember. They are seen as a joke of the NFL and never seem to have a feel for building through the draft. Al Davis has been gone for nearly two years now and there is a consistent GM trying to take control. The biggest change here MIGHT be the addition of QB Matt Flynn. Flynn hasn't played in a regular season game since he was with Green Bay and is still at risk of getting edged out by a combination of Pryor and injuries. Until Flynn takes the field, it is impossible to tell if he can replicate his brief success in Green Bay. the defense was middle of the pack last year, but look for it to improve under the second year of DC Jason Traver. The whole team should improve in their head coach's second year, but still won't be able to compete with the others in the division. 

AFC South Predictions

1. Houston Texans
Since starting their upward trend in 2011 by making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, the Texans have only improved. That being said, I don't think they will beat their win total from last year (12), but I do think they will win the division. Key pieces on offense, including QB Schaub, WR Johnson and RB Foster, all return, somewhat healthy. Losses on defense include LB Barwin, S Demps and S Quin, which will hurt, though the addition of Ed Reed and the return on Brain Cushing will ease the blow. The Texans are still the most complete team in this division, though they will not be a true Super Bowl contender.

2. Indianapolis Colts
After the devastating loss of Peyton Manning, the Colts got "Lucky" once again with a clear franchise quarterback to pick number one in the draft. Luck turned out to be everything advertised, and in many ways more. He will continue to improve in his second year, along with the attention of Pep Hamilton, a familiar face from Stanford, as offensive coordinator. Though there are minor questions at running back, the addition of speed Heyward-Bey will give Luck another weapon. Additions in the secondary of Landry and Toler will attempt to sure up a secondary that struggled last year. The Colts won a lot of game based on emotion and playing for a cause -- they won't have that this year, but they will have improved talent and players.

3. Tennessee Titans
The Titans have been looking for a firm identity and quarterback since the departure of Steve McNair. The further departure of Jeff Fisher didn't help and Mike Munchak hasn't been able to find the magic. I am not sold on QB Locker, and his mediocre receiving core. RB Johnson has under-performed since his record season. The defense must improve to control Luck and Schaub, though bringing in SS Pollard should help bring some physicality to the defense. But it simply won't be enough in this division and certainly not enough to make the playoffs.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars do not have a single redeeming quality among them. No quarterback, wide receiving cores always in trouble and an aging running back, a defense that ranked 30th last year and a new head coach; all of these things combine to spell disaster for Jacksonville. 1st round pick Luke Joeckel has turned out to be injury prone. Nothing on this team excites me as far as talent. It will be another tough year for Jacksonville.  

AFC East Predictions 2013

1. New England Patriots
Is there any other choice in this division besides the Patriots? Even given their rare off-season problems and drama, the team still has many key pieces. They lost Hernandez, Lloyd, Welker, Woodhead and Chung, and injuries are threatening to hurt them -- especially the one to Gronkowski. Most importantly, they still have Belichick leading them. With Tom Brady, he is the glue that makes the Patriots a force every year. The team is fading, and I don't see a Super Bowl run in their future. I don't see another Super Bowl for the Patriots in the Brady/Belichick era, but they will win the division.

2. Miami Dolphins
I don't have much reason to put the Dolphins here, except for the fact that both the Jets and Bills are in shambles. The Dolphins are on an upward trend and showed promise many times last year. They've made some interesting additions to help Tannehill -- Gibson, Wallace and Keller, though Keller has been knocked out in the preseason. On the defense they added Ellerbe and Grimes, which should help sure it up a little bit, though not enough to control Tom Brady and company. The loss of Bush, Long and Dansby hurts, but some of the important faces, like Wake remain. If Tannehill continues to develop, they should see improvement to at least a .500 record.

3. New York Jets
The New York Jets are a show. That's about it. There is major debate about whether Rex Ryan has already lost control of this team...before the year has even started! I believe he has. With the way the Jets have spiraled down in the last two years, I think he is a coach on the hot seat. There needs to be improvement this year, but there won't be. The losses are heavy, including major hits in the secondary -- Bell, Reviws and Landry. They haven't brought in anyone of note, except for Geno Smith, who has looked mostly lack luster in practice and in games. But now with Sanchez injured, they may not have a choice but to start Smith in the first game. And you all know my feelings on Sanchez anyway, no great loss. Rex Ryan is probably relieved that he doesn't have another decision to screw up.

4. Buffalo Bills
If the Jets quarterback sitution is bad, then the Bills is worse. If that's possible. Kolb has yet another concussion and EJ Manuel, their quarterback of the future just had minor knee surgery. They are left with undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel, though they signed Matt Leinart. If Tuel starts week one, he will make history and be the first undrafted rookie free agent quarterback to start a game on week one. It's not even worth mentioning much more about the Bills team because there's really not much to say, sadly. New head coach Doug Marrone has his work cut out for him. 

AFC North Predictions 2013

1. Baltimore Ravens
Say what you want about the former champs, but they are still the defending champions. They won it all last year through a combination of luck, talent and destiny. Though the talent has changed, it is still there. In today's NFL with free agency and big money, all Super Bowl Champions lose much of their team. But rarely do they get the chance to make pick ups like the Ravens have. Losing big names like Lewis, Reed, Boldin and Kruger hurts, but picking up names like Canty, Huff, Spears, Clark, Stokley and most importantly Dumervil lessens the blow. The important pieces are still there, like Flacco, Rice, Jones, Smith, Suggs and Ngata. The coaching staff remains remarkably intact; this is the first year in three years they haven't had a chance in offensive or defensive coordinator. The Ravens have made the playoffs five years in a row -- don't expect that trend to chance.

2. Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone is high on the Bengals this year. They've made the playoffs the last two years and Marvin Lewis seems to have righted the ship. Under the constancy of Dalton and Green, the offense has performed well. The running back position is a little questionable, because BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never proven that he is an every down back. And other than Green, there receiving corps are limited. The defense flew under the radar last year, but was good, ranking 3rd in the AFC. The addition of James Harrison will aid them, though one player can only do so much. He is also basically the Bengals' only notable addition (in my opinion). They will do well, probably make the playoffs, but not beat the Ravens.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers
I would have put the Steelers above the Bengals, but the preseason has not been kind to them. The team overall hasn't looked good and the offense is struggling. One almost wonders if OC Todd Haley and QB Roethlisberger are still not on the same page, though both insist things are fine. More than anything, their long list of important player losses rings alarm bells. Allen, Harrison, Lewis, Hampton and Pope head the defensive losses, while Colon, Mendenhall and Wallace are the casualties on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers have been on a downward trend in the last two years and in an increasingly good division they must improve, not take steps backwards.

4. Cleveland Browns
Is there really any other place to put the Browns besides in the bottom of what could be argued as the most competitive division in the AFC, if not the NFL. They haven't won more than five games in any of the last five seasons. The only notable addition is Kruger from Baltimore, while the losses of Cribbs, Watson, Brown and McCoy raise alarm bells. There is no talent to replace them on this team. A new head coach and new staff will do their best to work with what they have, but I'm not sold on Weeden, especially considering how little talent he has around him. Even if the no name defense could improve, this is an offensive league where passing the ball is your most important weapon. As long as the Browns remain incapable of doing so, they will stay in the bottom of the league and division.