AFC South Predictions

1. Houston Texans
Since starting their upward trend in 2011 by making the playoffs for the first time in franchise history, the Texans have only improved. That being said, I don't think they will beat their win total from last year (12), but I do think they will win the division. Key pieces on offense, including QB Schaub, WR Johnson and RB Foster, all return, somewhat healthy. Losses on defense include LB Barwin, S Demps and S Quin, which will hurt, though the addition of Ed Reed and the return on Brain Cushing will ease the blow. The Texans are still the most complete team in this division, though they will not be a true Super Bowl contender.

2. Indianapolis Colts
After the devastating loss of Peyton Manning, the Colts got "Lucky" once again with a clear franchise quarterback to pick number one in the draft. Luck turned out to be everything advertised, and in many ways more. He will continue to improve in his second year, along with the attention of Pep Hamilton, a familiar face from Stanford, as offensive coordinator. Though there are minor questions at running back, the addition of speed Heyward-Bey will give Luck another weapon. Additions in the secondary of Landry and Toler will attempt to sure up a secondary that struggled last year. The Colts won a lot of game based on emotion and playing for a cause -- they won't have that this year, but they will have improved talent and players.

3. Tennessee Titans
The Titans have been looking for a firm identity and quarterback since the departure of Steve McNair. The further departure of Jeff Fisher didn't help and Mike Munchak hasn't been able to find the magic. I am not sold on QB Locker, and his mediocre receiving core. RB Johnson has under-performed since his record season. The defense must improve to control Luck and Schaub, though bringing in SS Pollard should help bring some physicality to the defense. But it simply won't be enough in this division and certainly not enough to make the playoffs.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars do not have a single redeeming quality among them. No quarterback, wide receiving cores always in trouble and an aging running back, a defense that ranked 30th last year and a new head coach; all of these things combine to spell disaster for Jacksonville. 1st round pick Luke Joeckel has turned out to be injury prone. Nothing on this team excites me as far as talent. It will be another tough year for Jacksonville.  

AFC South 2012 Predictions

Houston Texans
The Texans finally broke through last year, for a franchise first playoff appearance and win. That success should continue this year, especially with the permanent departure of Peyton from this division. Schaub will be back, hopefully for the whole season. Though I wouldn’t lose faith if T.J Yates had to jump in and start again. After all, he does have the only playoff win in Texans’ history under his belt. Arian Foster must remain healthy, as must Andre Johnson, both of whom had issues last year. And there aren’t that many concerns on the defense—they let Mario Williams, their 1st overall pick, go. J.J Watt and new LB Bradie James, among Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed and Glover Quinn anchor the unit. They were the 2nd ranked defense last year! They’ll sweep through this division and into the playoffs without a problem.

Indy Colts
I believe in Andrew Luck. This is my daring pick for the AFC. They probably won’t make playoffs, but they will have a much better record. He is the real deal. He has good receivers around him, mostly Reggie Wayne. The offensive line is newly composed of new players (Samson Satele, Mike McGlynn and Winston Justice) who will try to protect the Luck. Maybe Donald Brown and Mewelde Moore will put together some form of a running game. The biggest change here will be Chuck Pagano’s arrival because he will improve the defense. Many of the pieces are already there and maybe the new additions of Vontae Davis and Tom Zbikowski in the secondary will help generate more coverage sacks. Except the Colts to surprise this year!

Tennessee Titans 
Chris Johnson’s poor year last year was a major concern and shock to many. What if it continues this year? Have defenses figured him out? Defenses probably won’t have a hard time figuring out Jake Locker as the QB. Britt and Washington are decent receivers, but nothing superb. If Johnson performs as he should, he could make or break Locker’s first season as the starter. The defense has its moments, but will remain in the middle of the pack as they were last year. That pretty much describes the whole Titans team—middle of the pack.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are perhaps the NFL’s most floundering franchise. Blaine Gabbert has not even come close to performing at an NFL level. The return of MDJ will make all the difference for this team, though Rashard Jennings could be a very nice surprise as the year goes on. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson are the new receiving core. Marcedes Lewis could return to the form he had in 2010, but that remains to be seen. The defense (ranked 6th last year, believe it or not) needs to produce more sacks and pressure to contain the quarterbacks and running backs in this division. But William and Mary’s very own Derek Cox leads the secondary, boosted by the arrival of Aaron Ross from New York. Rebuilding isn’t even a good enough term for what’s going to happen to the Jags this year.