2013 Divisional Weekend Picks

Here are my picks for this weekend. The Chargers are my one upset pick, only because they seem to have been Manning's Achilles' heel for many seasons. I'm not totally sold on it, but I think it could happen. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Colts and Saints win, but doubt both teams could pull it off.

(6) Saints (11-5) vs. (1) Seahawks (13-3)
Pick: Seahawks
(4) Colts (11-5) vs. (2) Patriots (12-4)
Pick: Patriots

(5) 49ers (12-4) vs. (2) Panthers (12-4)
Pick: Panthers
(6) Chargers (9-7) vs. (1) Broncos (13-3)
Pick: Chargers 

Super Bowl XLVII Prediction

Here it is -- the day we've all been waiting for.
The Super Bowl. The Big Dance. In the Big Easy.

First, let me say a few things. Yes, I am biased because I am a Ravens fan. I've gone so far picking them, I really can't in good conscious go back. And yes, I am here in New Orleans. And yes, I have real tickets to the game and will be in the Superdome tomorrow. And yes, it is going to be one of the greatest days of my life regardless of the outcome.

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers
6:30 EST CBS
49ers by 4.5
Game Pick: Ravens    Spread Pick: Ravens
Reason: The Ravens are simply a better team than the 49ers. They're a more experienced team in so many ways -- vertern leadership, including a tenured head coach, playoff success and a quarterback who had just outperformed the two best quarterbacks of the decade. Football playoffs are all about the mometum, and guess what, the Ravens most certainly have it. Yes, the 49ers have had success. But the Falcons and the Packers are not the teams that the Broncos and the Patriots are. IF the Ravens can control Kaepernick, and I believe they can, they will win the game. Don't underestimate the 49ers, but I just believe that they're not ready and Jim isn't the coach that John is. Sorry. It'll be a close game, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens pulled one out in a last mintue field goal. Take note, Justin Tucker, the world is watching.

2012 Conference Championship Picks

It's that time of the year again -- the time when though there are only two games, they matter more than anything else so far. Isn't that the story of the playoffs?

NFC -- 3:00 PM

(3) San Francisco 49ers vs. (1) Atlanta Falcons 

Falcons by 3

Pick: 49ers    Spread Pick: 49ers

Reasons: This game baffles me. Neither team really sticks out to me because both have been inconsistent  The 49ers lost to the Seahawks (big) but beat the Packers? The Falcons should have lost last week and have really been skating by all season. But the bottom line is that they didn't lose. Should doesn't count. But I'm concerned because of how well Russell Wilson did aganist the Atlanta defense. Kaep is better than him (perhaps...). Atlanta better have a solution. However, I don't think they do. My gut tells me to pick the 49ers, but I also believe it could go either way. I haven't believed in the Falcons all year -- why start now?

AFC -- 6:30 PM

(4) Baltimore Ravens vs. (2) New England Patriots

Patriots by 9.5

Pick: Ravens   Spread Pick: Ravens

Reasons: Does the phrase 'Team of Destiny' mean anything to you? It should. Teams such as the Giants (both recent years) and the Packers are notable for their own improbable 'team of destiny' runs through the playoffs and to the Super Bowl. Here's the deal -- the Ravens beat the Patriots in week 3, in an emotional win and with a great field goal. They should have won this game last year (and yes, it is exactly the same game as last year, for those of you who don't remember). It'll be an amazing game, but after last week can anything stand in the way of the Ravens? I don't think so.

2012 Division Weekend Picks

Saturday

4:30 PM
(4) Ravens vs. (1) Broncos
Broncos by 10
Pick: Broncos   Spread Pick: Ravens
Reason: Peyton Manning has never lost to the Ravens. The Ravens have never beaten Peyton. But Peyton also is 0-4 in playoff games played in weather under 40 degrees. Something has to give.

8:00 PM
(3) Packers vs. (2) 49ers
49ers by 2.5
Pick: Packers   Spread Pick: Packers
Reason: The Packers beat down Vikings. The 49ers are better than the Vikings to be sure, but the Packers are getting that Super Bowl run look to them. Aaron Rodgers has a little bit of a grudge here, as does Mike McCarthy. Should be a close game.

Sunday

1:00 PM
(5) Seahawks vs. (1) Falcons
Falcons by 2.5
Pick: Seahawks   Spread Pick: Seahawks
Reason: The Seahawks are hot right now. The Falcons are not. I know two east coast games in a row is a little extreme, but I think Pete Carroll after those years in USC will know how to handle these East coast trips. Momentum is everything in the playoffs and the Seahawks have it. The Falcons should panic.


4:30 PM
(3) Texans vs. (2) Patriots
Patriots by 10
Pick: Patriots   Spread Pick: Patriots
Reason: Did you not see the tape of the last game? Someone needs to wake up the Texans. They didn't play outstandingly against the Bengals, who are not even close to the level of the Patriots. Two weeks to prepare for this game and playing at home -- Belichick won't lose.

2012 Wild Card Weekend Picks

Alright everyone, it's playoff time. That means brackets. But for right now, I'm just gonna offer my picks and the line like I did last year. Hopefully my picks will be correct and then I won't have to post my possibly incorrect bracket. I'll chime in on the coaching carousel when the dust has settled.

SATURDAY

4:30 pm 
(6) Bengals (10-6) vs. (3) Texans (12-4)
 Texans by 4.5
Pick: Texans    Spread pick: Cinncy
Reason: Texans will get back on track and win this game, though don't expect them to get much further.

8:30 pm
(6) Vikings (10-6) vs. (3) Packers (11-5)
Packers by 7.5
Pick: Packers    Spread pick: Packers
Reason: The Packers won't allow the Vikings the same leyway as last week. They'll assert themselves and dominate a Christian Ponder who played unusually well last week.

SUNDAY

1:00 pm
(5) Colts (11-5) vs. (4) Ravens (10-6)
Ravens by 7
Pick: Ravens    Spread Pick: Colts
Reason: The Ravens have won a playoff game each of the last four years. And this time they get to play at home. Look for continued late revenge on the team that left. Ravens/Colts is always tough, especially with the return of Ray Lewis.

4:30 pm
(5) Seahawks (11-5) vs. (4) Redskins (10-6)
Seahawks by 3
Pick: Seahawks   Spread Pick: Seahawks
Reason: The Redskins are a nice story, but Luck (or even Wilson?) is the rookie of the year and RG3 is still a little out of sorts. The Seahawks will dominate, even though it's away from their home turf.

Super Bowl XVLI

Let’s talk about the Super Bowl.

Firstly, I was right in thinking it would be rematch of a fairly recent Super Bowl. I was just about seven years too early. On a later date, I’ll address the conference championship games. Right now, it hurts too much for us poor, 35 yard field goal victims.

So it’s Giants vs. Patriots in the Super Bowl. A rematch of the infamous Super Bowl XLII—the one that changed how the recent Patriots were seen for a long time and still does today. And this one could have similar ramifications. Here they are.

If the Giants win:

Tom Coughlin will be seen as an elite coach.

Eli will be “Elite Eli”, as he claimed he was before the season started.

The Giants pass rush, their entire defense, will go down as a unit that performs well under pressure and as one of the elite units, if it isn’t already.

The Patriots’ legacy will be challenged – except for Belichick’s. (More on this later).

If the Patriots win:

Belichick will go down in history s the modern Walsh, with Tom Brady as his Montana, unequaled in the last fifteen years.

The Patriots will prove that they don’t choke in the big games, playoff games, in recent memory.

Defense doesn’t need to win championships.

However, I think the Giants will win. Here’s why – defense still wins championships.

They’ve already beaten New England once this season. It will be a close game, don’t get me wrong. But Eli will pull it out, like he has all season, setting the record for fourth quarter touchdowns this season. The Giants are their best under pressure and there is no greater pressure than the Super Bowl.

New England has offense, but several key players are banged up. Notably “Gronk” and Matt Light. Those two players could tip the balance in favor of the Giants if they don’t play well. And the Giants are fairly healthy. Advantage – Giants.

But I really feel that the Giants’ defense will tip this game for New York. They’ve got great players n every level—defensive line, linebackers and secondary. Because their front four can bring so much pressure, so consistently, they will throw Brady off, out of rhythm. This takes the pressure off the ‘backers and the secondary. The secondary is opportunistic, and many of them were here for the last Super Bowl—notably, Webster, the leader. They will not waste any misfires by Tom Brady. And there will be some, with all the pressure brought in the trenches.

With ‘Gronk’ hobbled, the pressure will rest on the shoulders of the other receivers and running backs. Wait, they have other offensive players? The Giants need to be careful of Welker, always a threat, but manageable with their big linebackers to jam him on the line of scrimmage. Just don’t let him out into the flat. He’ll kill you out there.

All this being said, I think that it will be a low scoring, close game.

23-20 Giants.

Bring it Super Sunday. 

Conference Championships

Here we are, basically two weeks away from the Super Bowl. Now, let me begin by saying I'm proud to report that both of my Super Bowl picks are still in the game. That's better than last year, when they both got knocked out in the second round. I think both championships this year will be good, close games, but here's who will come out on top and why. 

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
In my bracket, I have the Ravens in the Super Bowl. So I can't exactly back down now. I've said all along that I'm not scared of New England. Baltimore has won playoff games on the road there before. They key for the Ravens in this game is simply to run the ball. It will take clock away, keeping Brady and company off the field, and exploit one of the Patriots' major weaknesses -- one of the worst run defenses in the league. Also, Joe Flacco has to play well. He's been under heavy fire, from both inside the locker room and out, being called the weak link on a team that has a star running back and defense. If you're going to believe in the Ravens, you must believe in Joe Flacco. And Cam Cameron's ability to call runs - lots of them. Ray Rice can make up the difference if Flacco struggles. Yes, Tom Brady is formidable. But the defense isn't. And they say defense wins championships. It'll be a good game, regardless of who wins. But I think it's the Ravens' game to lose.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
This is an interesting game, one no one would have predicted at the beginning of the season, featuring another one of my Super Bowl bracket picks -- the Giants. San Francisco is a great story. Rookie Coach, redeemed first round quarterback. But right now I believe that's where the story rends. Alex Smith is not Eli Manning. When both defense are as stellar as these two, then to get the result of the game, one must look at the respective offenses. Yes, the 49ers have Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. But the Giants have Bradshaw, Jacobs, Cruz and Eli. For all the Eli haters out there, you must admit that he has at least gotten it together at the end of the season and in the playoffs. I'm not saying that the Giants are going to blow them out -- but I do believe they will win with a combination of hot offense and stingy defense.


Conclusion? 
Super Bowl XLVI will be Ravens v. Giants, a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV. 

Divisional Round 2011

So, here are the picks for this weekends playoff games.

Saints over 49ers. The spread is 3.5, in favor of the Saints and I would take the Saints.
Reasoning -- at the very least, the Saints will win by a touchdown. They say offense sells tickets and defense wins championships. That principle has had a lot of influence on the picks this week, because several of these match ups show a heavily offensive team with a heavily defensive one. Regardless, I think the Saints offense is too much for the 49ers defense in this case. Saints by a touchdown.

Patriots over Broncos. The spread is 13.5 in favor of the Patriots. I want to say Denver will beat the spread.
Reasoning -- Tim Tebow. If he can continue the upward trend, he has a chance to keep this game close. The defense will have to play better than they did in the last meeting. Remember, Denver owned the first quarter last time. They did fall apart, but they showed they have the potential. Don't be surprised if Denver wins this one -- the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since 2007.

SUNDAY GAMES
Ravens over Texans. The spread is 9, in favor of the Ravens. Take the Ravens. TJ Yates is going to have a long day.
Reasoning -- The Ravens are playing at home. They're strongest there. TJ Yates is a rookie quarterback, who has definitely impressed me, but he's still a rookie. He's got a lot of learning to do here, and it's not going to be pretty. With a week off, Baltimore is rested and prepared for this.

Giants over Packers. The spread is the Packers favored by 8. Take the Giants.
Reasoning -- Remember 2007. Please. This Giants team reminds me so much of that one. Yes, the Packers are an offensive powerhouse. But the Giants can bring the pressure like no one else in the NFC. I would not be surprised to see them win, as they almost did in week 13. So, I'm just going to go out on a limb and pick them. Sorry, Packers nation.