1. Baltimore Ravens
Say what you want about the former champs, but they are still the defending champions. They won it all last year through a combination of luck, talent and destiny. Though the talent has changed, it is still there. In today's NFL with free agency and big money, all Super Bowl Champions lose much of their team. But rarely do they get the chance to make pick ups like the Ravens have. Losing big names like Lewis, Reed, Boldin and Kruger hurts, but picking up names like Canty, Huff, Spears, Clark, Stokley and most importantly Dumervil lessens the blow. The important pieces are still there, like Flacco, Rice, Jones, Smith, Suggs and Ngata. The coaching staff remains remarkably intact; this is the first year in three years they haven't had a chance in offensive or defensive coordinator. The Ravens have made the playoffs five years in a row -- don't expect that trend to chance.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
Everyone is high on the Bengals this year. They've made the playoffs the last two years and Marvin Lewis seems to have righted the ship. Under the constancy of Dalton and Green, the offense has performed well. The running back position is a little questionable, because BenJarvus Green-Ellis has never proven that he is an every down back. And other than Green, there receiving corps are limited. The defense flew under the radar last year, but was good, ranking 3rd in the AFC. The addition of James Harrison will aid them, though one player can only do so much. He is also basically the Bengals' only notable addition (in my opinion). They will do well, probably make the playoffs, but not beat the Ravens.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
I would have put the Steelers above the Bengals, but the preseason has not been kind to them. The team overall hasn't looked good and the offense is struggling. One almost wonders if OC Todd Haley and QB Roethlisberger are still not on the same page, though both insist things are fine. More than anything, their long list of important player losses rings alarm bells. Allen, Harrison, Lewis, Hampton and Pope head the defensive losses, while Colon, Mendenhall and Wallace are the casualties on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers have been on a downward trend in the last two years and in an increasingly good division they must improve, not take steps backwards.
4. Cleveland Browns
Is there really any other place to put the Browns besides in the bottom of what could be argued as the most competitive division in the AFC, if not the NFL. They haven't won more than five games in any of the last five seasons. The only notable addition is Kruger from Baltimore, while the losses of Cribbs, Watson, Brown and McCoy raise alarm bells. There is no talent to replace them on this team. A new head coach and new staff will do their best to work with what they have, but I'm not sold on Weeden, especially considering how little talent he has around him. Even if the no name defense could improve, this is an offensive league where passing the ball is your most important weapon. As long as the Browns remain incapable of doing so, they will stay in the bottom of the league and division.
