AFC East 2011 Predictions

Here are more predictions. I'll be adding more now that the lockout is over and things start to come into a clearer picture. Let me know if you think I'm on point! 

AFC EAST

1.       New England Patriots – 12-4

I know it’s typical to put the Patriots at the top of the East, but with Brady and Belichik still at the helm, it seems inevitable. Brady can put up numbers with ‘no names’ at every position. Woodhead, Welker and Branch all return for another year in the same system.  And now they are joined by Ochocinco, the circus. I think Belichik can keep in him line and he provides another receiving threat for Brady. Hopefully the combination of Woodhead and the law firm (BenJarvis-GreenEllis) will give life to a running game and take some of the load off Brady’s shoulders. The defense is still young, but Belichik created success last year with a simple system. This year, with most players in their second and third years, expect the unit to be more confident. The packages will probably be more exotic, creating more trouble for opposing offenses. Even last year, they led the league in interceptions and turn over differential. Keep an eye on Jerod Mayo (3^rd year ILB), Albert Hanyesworth (newly acquired DL) and Brandon Meriweather (5^th year SS) to anchor the defenses on all three levels. I say Hanyesworth, even after the fiasco in Washington because of the potential he showed years before in Tennessee.

Overall – There are a few ‘trap games’ on the schedule (Pittsburgh, Giants and Philly) as well as the Jets (x2) and Indy, but other than that the Patriots should breeze through another year.

2.       New York Jets – 10-6

The Jets are once again calling for a championship, but this time they are not sneaking up on anyone. The first Rex Ryan year they made the playoffs because Indy decided to lay down for them. The second year, they showed their own merits, but still came out with only a 11-5 record, didn’t win the division and hoisted neither the Hunt nor Lombardi trophies. Expect more of the same from the Jets. Sanchez has yet to convince me that he can carry this team, and has lost a key receiver in Braylon Edwards. Yes, they got Plaxico, but he’s older and doesn’t know the system yet. Also, Brad Smith has packed up to go upstate which is a huge loss for them. The RBs are questionable, with LT not panning out long term. The Jets offense ranked 11^th last year – don’t expect that number to rise. The defense ranked 3^rd overall, but didn’t stand out in any of the categories that Rex Ryan claims to love, such as interceptions, sacks and points allowed. Woody (LB), Jenkins (DT), Taylor (DE) and Gholston (DE) have all left as of right now for free agency. The Jets need to get younger on defense, especially the front three. The second remains the best part of the unit.

Overall, the lockout hurt the Jets the most because it allowed several of their key players to leave, due to their habits of signing aging players to short contracts.

3.       Buffalo Bills – 8-8

I know that this is a stretch, but the Bills are a team that could surprise everyone this year.  Their record last year didn’t reflect how good they really were, losing five games by less than 5 points. Gailey seems to think Fitzpatrick is the answer at QB, but they still brought in Thigpin from Miami. We’ll see how that pans out. The emergence of WRs Evans and Johnson should help him. Most importantly, they acquired Brad Smith through free agency. This should give them the x-factor that they’ve been missing for this whole time. C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson need to team up and become the one two punch the Bills need to supplement the sub-standard passing game. The defense is in the second year of being a 3-4, drafted Marcell Dareus (DT) and signed Nick Barnett (LB) from Green Bay to help. The secondary proved to be the best piece of this unit, ranking 3^rd against the pass. Unfortunately it remains to be seen if Galiey had the personal to run the 3-4. It’s up to  George Edwards (defensive coordinator) to make it work. If the defense can keep them in games, perhaps the offense can find some sparks they were missing last year and win some of the close/overtime games.

Overall, don’t think that I’m saying the Bills will rise above mediocrity, but they won’t be as tragic as last year.

4.       Miami Dolphins - 4-12

The Dolphins are in disgrace; they need to find all their skill positions, were caught coach hunting while they still had one and won only one home game. Now they really have no answer at QB. They haven’t gotten a major one in free agency, though they did sign Matt Moore from the Panthers. Whoever ends up playing will do so without the use of WR Brandon Marshall, who had found himself in some off season trouble.  But Bess, Hartline and Fasano should give whoever is at the helm some help in the receiving department. Both running backs, Williams and Brown, are gone and Reggie Bush is now expected to replace them. He can’t do it by himself – he’s shown he’s not that kind of back in New Orleans. The defense wasn’t terrible last year, ranking 6^th overall. However, turnovers, or lack of them was an issue. If the secondary of Smith, Davis and Allen, with bell’s consistency, can generate more interceptions, then the unit could be good.  Karlos Dansby produced last year and should remain a strong leader. The defense is the best thing this team has. Finally, special teams must improve to not give up close games and avoid another debacle like the New England game.

Overall, there are too many ifs for the Dolphins this year. A piece of advice – stop kicking field goals, go for Touchdowns or look for a new job, Soprano.