2013 NFC South Predictions

1. New Orleans Saints
I'm putting the Saints above the Falcons because of their schedule. They only have four games that could be tricky (Atlanta twice, New England and San Francisco). Plus, the return of Sean Peyton makes a huge difference -- this team missed him last year. New defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has his work cut out for him to improve the unit which held the team back last year. A full year for Jonathan Vilma will bring stablity to the unit as a whole. Look for the Saints to have a bounce back year.

2. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons have had 13 wins in two of the last seasons and have finally tasted playoff success. Matt Ryan has silenced some of the critics, but not all of them. Especially now that Flacco, his draft mate, has won a Super Bowl, Ryan needs to at least get to one. He has the weapons; WR Jones and TE Gonzalez. The loss of RB Turner hurts, but picking up RB Jackson was brilliant. The defense has reassured itself after the loss DE Abraham. They brought in Osi Umenyiora from the Giants. They must learn to control not only Drew Brees in their own division, but the high powered quarterbacks they will face in the playoffs.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccs floundered after some improvement in previous year, but seem to be once again on the up with second year head coach Greg Schiano. QB Freeman must prove himself for real this year, showing that he was not merely a one shot wonder. The muscle hamster, RB Martin proved to be an excellent find for the team to bring another level the offense. The defense was terrible, ranking 29th in the league last year. Improvement here is a must, though they only brought in one 'name' and that's Revis who is coming off an injury. One player doesn't make a defense and improvement will take time.

4. Carolina Panthers
I have never been sold on Cam Newton. And am still not. Sophomore slump hit him hard and he showed a few cracks this year in the public eye. The weapons around him are aging and eventually the will run out of time. The defense seemed to be the only redeeming quality of the team last year, ranking 10th in the NFL. LB Luke Kuechky leads the charge and is the heart and the soul of the defense. But there are not many bright spots on the horizon for the Panthers, who will continue to be mediocre until they can find a real quarterback. Coach Ron Rivera isn't on the hot seat yet, but he's very very close. 

NFC South 2012 Predictions

New Orleans Saints
Yes, “bounty-gate” happened to the Saints. Yes, Sean Payton is gone for the season. But let’s be honest with ourselves here. The Saints are one of those teams that pretty much can handle itself. There’s a reason that Drew Brees is the most prolific quarterback in the league over the last five years he’s been in New Orleans. The offense has all its parts returning. The defense will be improved, with Steve Spagnuolo at the helm. Don’t be fooled by his tough stint in St. Louis – New Orleans is full of much more talent that St. Louis was. Curtis Lofton was brought in to replace Jonathan Vilma—he has the ability to do so. Don’t count New Orleans out – if a team can respond well to adversity, it’s this one.

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta for me is a team that can get close, but never step through the door. The offense is pretty good, lead by Matt Ryan, who is always consistent. Michael Turner is a good back who has also been consistent. But that’s the thing about Atlanta—they’re consistent, not innovative. Even when they gave up their entire draft for Julio Jones two years ago, they didn’t turn his acquisition into an innovation, or even big plays. All of this doesn’t make Atlanta a bad team, they are to me the definition of a good vanilla team. Which makes them easy for a good coach to take apart, such as Spagnuolo or Tom Coughlin. Asante Samuel gives them a good chance to containing Brees and Newton—they could contend for the title here, but I can’t see them keeping up with New Orleans, though they have a favorable schedule.

Carolina Panthers
I was very vocal last year about how I wasn’t sold on Cam Newton. I’m still not convinced that I was 100% wrong, because only time will really tell how good he can be. But he was good. However, he was almost all of their offense last year. Deangelo Williams didn’t really show up like he has before, but part of that may have been Newton’s own running ability. Steve Smith is a solid receiver and the offense has plenty of firepower potential. What sunk this team last year was the defense. They sucked—28th in the league. The return of injured linebacker, and captain, Jon Beason should help, as well as the first round addition of Luke Kuechly. But I’m not sure they can make the leap to shut down in just a year—even the year before with Beason intact they weren’t stellar. In this division, you’ve got to be able to play defense as well as score points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa, you’re back to your losing ways. And it looks like you’re going to stay there for a while. While everyone else in your division has strived to make progress, you’ve actually gone backwards. Josh Freeman, after a surprisingly good rookie season, regressed in a major way in his second year. However, I like the replacement of Raheem Morris, who was just too relaxed. Players need some gentle discipline, and Greg Schiano should provide that. If Freeman and Williams can return to form and integrate Vincent Jackson, they might have some offense. But it will take time for the complete mental change that needs to take place here. The defensive line needs to play up to its potential, though the secondary is anchored by Aqib Talib and the ever young Ronde Barber. The team has taken a step in the right direction for the future, but for right now, the going will be slow and rough.