NFC West 2012 Predictions

San Francisco 49ers
This is the team that took everyone by surprise last year. Though they won’t sneak up on anyone this year, they won’t lose a step, especially in a division that is notoriously weak. Harbarugh did what no other coach has been able to do – understand Alex Smith. That made all the difference. Great teams are the ones that understand their strengths and use them to their advantage. The 49ers wrote the book on this last year. Now with the addition of Randy Moss, they have a proven big play receiver besides Vernon Davis. All of the defensive starters return—an unheard of phenomenon in today’s age of free agency. With Patrick Willis in the center, leading this unit, look for them to continue their dominance.

Arizona Cardinals
I’m putting the Cardinals above the Seahawks here because of their schedule. I also believe they’re a huge sleeper team. John Skelton will be the quarterback here—he has earned it. He has Larry Fitzgerald and Todd Heap to throw to, as well as Beanie Wells (RB), who has continued to develop. The defense was middle of the pack—literally, they were ranked 18th. But that doesn’t mean they lack for talent. Darnell Docket, Patrick Peterson, Adrian Wilson, William Gay and Calais Campbell are the heart of this defense. They needed a year to adjust to the 3-4, but should be more confident now. They’re my sleeper pick for the playoffs. Playoffs?!?!

Seattle Seahawks
I have never been sold on Pete Carroll and his methods. I don’t like Russell Wilson, even though he is from Wisconsin, as a rookie starting quarterback, especially over Matt Flynn. We’ll see if he doesn’t get benched for Flynn at some point. This team lacks a big receiver. Yes, they have Sidney Rice, but he hasn’t had a big year since he played with Brett Favre. Marshawn Lynch is a beast but he can’t carry this team through this schedule by himself. The defense is stronger than most people think (ranked 9th last year), but can’t hold up against Green Bay, Carolina, New England, Detroit, Chicago and San Francisco (twice). They’ve got an exceptional pair of CBs but that’s about it on the defensive side.

St. Louis Rams
The poor Rams. Sam Bradford needs to develop, or finish developing. He just kind of stalled last year. Steven Jackson is once again back to help and truly be the offense. They’ve added Steve Smith and tried to bolster the offensive line. They’ve also revamped the defense by adding six new starters, Michael Brockers, Kendall Langford, Mario Haggan, Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins. With Jeff Fisher at the helm now, you never know. My prediction is that in TWO years, the Rams might contend seriously for a division title again. But Fisher was thrown for a little bit of a loop when he lost his defensive coordinator in Greg Williams. But Fisher knows how to turn around bad teams—give him time, he’ll get there with these guys too.

NFC South 2012 Predictions

New Orleans Saints
Yes, “bounty-gate” happened to the Saints. Yes, Sean Payton is gone for the season. But let’s be honest with ourselves here. The Saints are one of those teams that pretty much can handle itself. There’s a reason that Drew Brees is the most prolific quarterback in the league over the last five years he’s been in New Orleans. The offense has all its parts returning. The defense will be improved, with Steve Spagnuolo at the helm. Don’t be fooled by his tough stint in St. Louis – New Orleans is full of much more talent that St. Louis was. Curtis Lofton was brought in to replace Jonathan Vilma—he has the ability to do so. Don’t count New Orleans out – if a team can respond well to adversity, it’s this one.

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta for me is a team that can get close, but never step through the door. The offense is pretty good, lead by Matt Ryan, who is always consistent. Michael Turner is a good back who has also been consistent. But that’s the thing about Atlanta—they’re consistent, not innovative. Even when they gave up their entire draft for Julio Jones two years ago, they didn’t turn his acquisition into an innovation, or even big plays. All of this doesn’t make Atlanta a bad team, they are to me the definition of a good vanilla team. Which makes them easy for a good coach to take apart, such as Spagnuolo or Tom Coughlin. Asante Samuel gives them a good chance to containing Brees and Newton—they could contend for the title here, but I can’t see them keeping up with New Orleans, though they have a favorable schedule.

Carolina Panthers
I was very vocal last year about how I wasn’t sold on Cam Newton. I’m still not convinced that I was 100% wrong, because only time will really tell how good he can be. But he was good. However, he was almost all of their offense last year. Deangelo Williams didn’t really show up like he has before, but part of that may have been Newton’s own running ability. Steve Smith is a solid receiver and the offense has plenty of firepower potential. What sunk this team last year was the defense. They sucked—28th in the league. The return of injured linebacker, and captain, Jon Beason should help, as well as the first round addition of Luke Kuechly. But I’m not sure they can make the leap to shut down in just a year—even the year before with Beason intact they weren’t stellar. In this division, you’ve got to be able to play defense as well as score points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa, you’re back to your losing ways. And it looks like you’re going to stay there for a while. While everyone else in your division has strived to make progress, you’ve actually gone backwards. Josh Freeman, after a surprisingly good rookie season, regressed in a major way in his second year. However, I like the replacement of Raheem Morris, who was just too relaxed. Players need some gentle discipline, and Greg Schiano should provide that. If Freeman and Williams can return to form and integrate Vincent Jackson, they might have some offense. But it will take time for the complete mental change that needs to take place here. The defensive line needs to play up to its potential, though the secondary is anchored by Aqib Talib and the ever young Ronde Barber. The team has taken a step in the right direction for the future, but for right now, the going will be slow and rough.

NFC East 2012 Predictions

New York Giants
Please stop discounting the current Super Bowl champions. Yes, we all laughed at Eli last year when he said he was as good as a Tom Brady. Turns out he’s better and that you can’t spell elite without Eli. Victor Cruz set a Giants receiving records last year and shows no signs of slowing down. The running game is a concern, with the departure of Brandon Jacobs. After watching the game tonight I am concerned about the defense, but know they will get it together for the rest of the season.

Philadelphia Eagles
I believe in the Eagles, but I’m not sure they can stay healthy. I think Michael Vick is a good QB, if he can stay healthy. That’s a huge if, even if his back up played well in the preseason. Preseason is not regular season. The receiving core is intact, refocused and was always above average. LeShawn McCoy is a brilliant running back who can handle a full load for the Eagles by himself. Despite the turnover problems that the offense and Vick had, the defense should have been a lot better than it was. Second year coordinator Juan Castillo should have things a little more together this season. Nnamdi Asomugha needs to come back to the form he had in Oakland. They should contend for this division title.

Dallas Cowboys
I’m not sure if I agree about the window for the Cowboys closing –only because I’m not sure how open it ever was. The NFC is much stronger than the AFC, and they play in one of the stronger divisions. Tony Romo is a good quarterback. Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are good receivers. DeMarco Murray Is a good running back. Health and off the field issues have hurt the offense. Tony Romo getting sacked has hurt the offense. Rob Ryan’s defense proved to be too much for last year’s players. Most of the players are returning, but a few key additions hope to try to shut down Eli and Vick. Those notable additions would be the two CBs, Brandon Carr and rookie Morris Claiborne. We’ll see if Dallas can make that leap to the playoffs, though  I’m not 100% sold on Jason Garrett as a head coach.

Washington Redskins
I do not believe in RGIII. I do not believe in Mike Shanahan. I do not believe in the Redskins. They have no offensive weapons. Santana Moss is old. Can you even name another receiver on that team? They cut Tim Hightower, which I believe was a mistake. Roy Helu at least needs a back-up, though I don’t believe he can carry the load of Mike Shanahan’s run focused offense. The defense has been consistently upper middle of the pack in the league. They just can’t score points. In a such a powerful division, even strong defensive players like London Fletcher, Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo can’t save this team from the basement.

NFC North Predictions

Green Bay Packers
How can anyone not have the Packers once again leading this division? We all know about the fire powered offense that almost no one could contain last year. All the main pieces are back, supplemented by the new additions of Jeff Saturday (C) and Cedric Benson (RB). What sunk this team last year was a defense that was in the bottom of the league. However, Tramon Williams is back from injury and they added another strong LB in Nick Perry in the draft to take some pressure off of Clay Matthews. They won’t be a top defense in the league, but they will be better.

Detroit Lions
Hey remember that year Matthew Stafford threw for 5,000 yards and didn’t make the Pro Bowl? Oh yeah that was last year. The league will not ignore Matthew Stafford this year. In his first fully healthy year, he proved why he deserved to be a number one overall pick. With Calvin Johnson to throw to, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be just as productive this year. Look for rookie Mikel Leshoure to possibly help a depleted running game here as well. But as the Packers, what killed this unit last year was the defense. The secondary couldn’t stop anyone. Anyone. Ever. I’m not sure the problem has been solved either. The release of Aaron Berry hurt this unit. We’ll have to see if Bill Benthley, the new rookie CB can help.

Chicago Bears
The Bears finally realized that they had no actual wide receivers. No Devin Hester, you don’t count. So they went out and got Brandon Marshall and drafted Alshon Jeffery. Marshall and Cutler appear to be glad to be back together once again and will help this offense generate more big plays and take some pressure off Matt Forte, who got paid this offseason. The offensive line must product Jay Cutler, though there is no front runner at left tackle. The defense is always pretty good, though hasn’t been notable in the last few years. An injury to Brain Urlacher is a concern, though he claims he’ll be back for the opener against Indy. Look for improvement, but there’s no way they can keep up with the Lions and the Packers. They might sneak into the playoffs as a wild card however.

Minnesota Vikings
Vikings fans, there’s a lot that needs fixing here. Christain Ponder will improve in his second year, there is no doubt of that. It is his first year as the outright starter and all reports from training camp say that he has more confidence and poise, not to mention a greater knowledge of the offense. It helps that Adrian Peterson is back from his torn ACL/MCL and will be in the back field to help him. The addition of Jerome Simpson, best known for his leap in Week 16 last year, will help his awkward receiving core. The defense has been mediocre, middle of the pack, with the exception of Jared Allen who is one of the best defensive players in the league. Still, this division is too high powered for Minnesota to have a chance.

NFC WEST 2011 Predictions

This is the last set of predictions! Which is darn good because the season starts today!! YESSSS. My life is officially once again complete. On that note, I will be posting game by game predictions later today -- probably much closer to kick off time! 

NFC WEST

1)      St. Louis Rams

This is no Greatest Show on Turf, but they can win the division. They almost did last year. Sam Bradford will flourish with Josh McDaniels there. With Jackson still going strong, the run support is there. Remember, this is the worst division in football – defenses will give up big runs. Wide receiver is a wild card here. Mike Sims-Walker could the answer, but the return of Clayton and Avery will doubtless help as well. I think Amendola will breakout Welker-like. At TE Kendricks and Hoomanawanul could create major matchup problems. Defensively, Spagnuolo has a heavy hand in things, but it’s Ken Flajule’s show to run. The rush is solid – a carryover from Spagnuolo’s New York years. Long and Hall are both decent ends that demand attention. Laurinaitis has become the unquestioned leader of this unit, but needs his supporting LBs to, well, support. In the secondary the loss of Oshiomoho Atogwe hurts. But Bartell and Fletcher are decent at the corners. Finding a replacement for Atogwe is key.

Overall, the Rams are on an upward trend.

2)      Arizona Cardinals

Larry Fitzgerald wanted Kevin Kolb so badly  that he put him up in his own house, with his own room, for a few days before he was actually traded there. Larry is on the right track. Warner showed that this team just needs a starting QB to put all the pieces together. At running back Beanie Wells needs to prove himself a little bit. The departure of Hightower puts more pressure on him to perform. The drafting of Ryan Williams (2^nd round) might provide some support here. The defense must improve with new coordinator Ray Horton. Hopefully he will bring a little LeBeau magic to the desert. DL Williams, Dockett and Campbell and are the strength of the unit. No doubt. Don’t know any of the linebackers? No one else does either. Porter and Haggans, the two main starters last year, are old. The other two spots are more of a tossup. Wilson (SS) and Rhodes (FS) and Peterson (CB) will have to rise to the occasion this year. Last year, play fell off here.

Overall, a good QB and defense could push them to 8-8.

3)      San Francisco 49ers

This is the one team I would like to be wrong about. But their preseason hasn’t given me much confidence. Harbaugh must develop Smith. Let me say that again. Harbaugh must develop Smith. If that happens, with Frank Gore’s consistent running game, they could have a passable offense. Dixon, Hunter and Miller (FB) could all see time if Gore gets injured (again). Vernon Davis (TE) is the only productive wide out in this unit. Crabtree, Morgon and Ginn must adapt quickly to the West Coast system. Vic Fangio is a student of Dom Capers and will look to develop the same type of system. Smith (DE) is the stat of the time and a handworker. The line isn’t flashy, but might improve. Patrick Willis is the star here. He will help the transition to a new system. Takeo Spike isn’t a bad LB either. The secondary is the weak link here. Clements and Mays struggle with deep coverage. Expect a lot of rotation here.

Overall, Alex Smith and Harbaugh need to become best friends. Now.

4)      Seattle Seahawks

Seattle was a fluke in many ways last year, including beating a Saints team that just fell apart. Pete Carrol has no idea where he is trying to go. They have talent offensively, in Lynch, Rice (WR), Williams (WR) and Miller (TE). But no QB. Jackson is not the answer. He couldn’t even keep a starting job with AP to carry him. This could be ugly fast. The defense runs a hybrid of 4-3/3-4. The line is above average, but owes most of its style to the categorization of the lineman – “Leo” = pass running. Clemons had 11 sacks as the “Leo” last year. The linebackers are missing Lofa Tatupu. Aaron Curry needs to become the player he was advertised as coming out of college. Maybe a second year in the system will help him? The secondary sucks – let’s not sugar coat it. Earl Thomas (S) is the only playmaker back there and has too much to make up for. Trufant, Jennings , Thurmond and Chancellor have never distinguished themselves in any way.

Overall, Seattle needs to find a direction and a quarterback. 

NFC South 2011 Predictions

Here we go -- a division with three potential playoff teams. However, I have faith in New Orleans here. Really. They bounce back really well. Read Drew Brees' book, any body?

NFC SOUTH

1)      New Orleans Saints

Life will once again be a Brees in New Orleans. People are underrating them – big time. The nucleus of their 2009 Super Bowl team remains and the Saints often have a down year then come back with a vengeance. Helping Brees and Payton on offense are Graham (TE), Colston, Henderson, Moore and Meachem (WRs). But most important are the addition of Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles (RBs) to help Thomas. With Bush gone, this could finally be the Saints’ chance for a real power running game. Run sets up the pass. Defensively, the Saints aren’t bad – they just fell apart in that loss to Seattle. On the defensive line, they added Rogers (FA) and Jordon (1^st round) to help Ellis. Will Smith (DE) needs to find the rhythm he had in 2009 (13 sacks, compared to 5.5 last year.) Vilma is the leader of the defense and an incredible middle linebacker., the people around him remain question marks. Casillas, Arnoux or Wilson? Who knows? The secondary of Jenkins, Greer, Porter and Harper should continue to perform to playoff standards.

Overall, don’t count New Orleans out—they could go far with a real running game.

2)      Atlanta Falcons

I don’t think the addition of one wide out is enough to push the Falcons over the edge. What knocked them out last year wasn’t offense—it was nonexistent defense. Matt Ryan has proven himself a franchise quarterback and leads an efficient passing attack. Gonzalez (TE), White, Jenkins and Jones (WRs) all combine into an elite receiving core. If the running game of Turner, Norwood and Rodgers can have the success they had last year, it should open up Ryan’s throwing even more. A rebuilt offensive line will have to prove they’re up to the test. Defensively, the Falcons remain a 4-3 team, relying on power pass rushers like Abraham to  provide the pressure. However, there’s not star to play alongside him and take some of the double teams. The linebackers are a bunch of unknowns, but that doesn’t mean they can’t play well. Remember the 'No-name’ defense of Miami? A few coming back from injuries (Lofton and Weatherspoon) could make a difference. The secondary got torched by Rodgers. Grimes broke out last year – can he continue to develop and bring the rest of the unit with him?

Overall, the Falcons gave up their souls for a WR- I’m not sold that he’s the answer.

3)      Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The combination of Josh Freeman (QB), Mike Williams (WR) and LeGarrette Blount (RB) shocked the league last year. Freeman will continue to develop this year and his young wide outs will help him. With defense focusing on Williams, Arrelious Been should be open more and therefore see more of Freeman’s throws. While the skill players on this team are built young, the offensive line is full of veterans ready to anchor the unit. They should open holes for Blount and keep Freeman on his feet. The defense has been nicknamed the ‘Tampa 2.1’ for the mixture of fronts, blitzes and coverage that are new. Once again, this is a unit built young. Draft picks from the last two years will fill the line. McCoy, Price, Clayborn and Bowers. Chemistry will be important here. In the line backing department, they have solid but no fearsome players. The secondary has old man Barber, but could lose Jackson and Talib to off-field issues.

Overall, the Bucs aren’t enough to division but could make another wild card push.

4)      Carolina Panthers

I am not on the Cam Newton bandwagon. He reminds me too much of Vince Young, or even a Ryan Leaf. And that’s pretty much as bad as it gets. Pretty much. That being said, I think they will win more than two games this year. Maybe four or five. They are in a killer division. Williams and Stewart will have to carry this team—which they’ve proven they can. Newton should get used to find Smith, Gettis and Shockey to help take some pressure off the running game, due to the prone-ness for injury. This offense is a wild card, but I’m not solid on a one year turn around. Ron Rivera had a good defense in San Diego and Sean McDermott will be ‘running it’ in Carolina. But he doesn’t have a terrible group to work with. Johnson (DE) is the only bright spot on the line, however. There is the potential for talent to emerge here. Jon Beason is one of the most underrated linebackers in the game. If Davis, Williams and Norwood can pick up, this could be a solid group. The secondary has no one to play the corners—that will be problematic in controlling Brees, Ryan and Freeman (six times a year).

Overall, Carolina is headed in the right direction –if Newton pans out.