You've arrived at the Football Office -- a National Football League blog, with game picks, analysis and commentary!

Friday, February 10, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI Wrap


What a game.
Super Bowl XLVI certainly lived up to the hype – yet the end result was the same.
The Giants outplayed the Patriots in the clutch. I’m not even going to touch the specifics of the game right now for several reasons. I haven’t looked at the game film and ESPN and co. have dealt with it plenty. I probably will go through it at some point.
Rather, I would like to discuss the ramifications of this game – basically what it all means.
Firstly, the question now needs to be raised ‘Are the Giants a dynasty in the making?’ Let me elaborate. Over the course of the last five Super Bowls, the Giants have won two of them. Once knocking off the ‘perfect’ Patriots through superior play in the clutch, something New England used to be known for. If Eli and Coughlin win one more in the next three or four years, I think the topic needs to come up.
On a similar subject, Eli had become ELIte. Leave him alone. I know many people don’t like him because of the way he acted on draft day. That was eight years ago. And it looks like a pretty good decision now, doesn’t it? Regardless of how one personally feels about him, one must admit that he has turned elite. I’m not a huge fan of Brady, but will admit that he is an elite quarterback. Between setting the record for 4th quarter touchdowns and beating Green Bay, Sand Francisco and the Patriots (all on the road), in the playoffs when it mattered most, Eli had proven he needs to be in the conversation. Big bro Peyton may have four NFL MVPS, but Eli had two Super Bowl MVPs and rings. Both against New England, Peyton’s kryptonite.
Tom Coughlin—now the oldest coach to ever win a Super Bowl—has also changed the way he will be viewed in NFL history. He has now won as many Super Bowls as greats such as Lombardi and Parcells. He has survived New York. He has prepared his team under pressure. He has adapted to the new NFL, yet maintained enough of the ‘old’ coaching style. He had proved that the way to win Super Bowls is the way coaches have for years—quiet preparation, not big talk. He is not Rex Ryan. He controls his team, but not with an iron fist like he used to. And he had maintained a winning atmosphere  
Now, on to New England’s Head Coach and Quarterback.
Let me start by saying that I understand both Brady and Belichick are first ballot hall of famers. Nothing will change that. What I’m  talking about is how they’re viewed. Basically the legacy effect.
Here’s what it comes down to—for Brady more than Belichick.
They won their three Super Bowls in a small window of time—just four years. Yes, dynasty. No doubt. But long term, they didn’t have dominant success. Yes, the 16-0 season, but Indy gave theirs up two years later and Green Bay almost had one this year. And because they did lost the super Bowl that year, it becomes a novelty in NFL history. A what if statement. Then followed several years of regular season success and playoff disappointment. This year, they once again fell short on the big stage.
All I’m saying is that a lot of the credit for New England’s success in those years (2001-2004) went to Brady. Though he was good during those years, the Patriots of today have shown that there was more going on there than just a good quarterback. Those teams proved attitude, that a team first mentality can win championships without dominant players and create a dynasty. Players on those teams say that this mentality was the key to their success –it helped them stay together in times of trouble and have faith they could win the tough games. Those Patriots teams were great—there is no doubt. All I want to raise here is how much of a role Brady truly played. Widen the scope on those teams. Next time you want to say Brady is better than Manning look closer at the talent around each of them. Compare the mentality of the teams. Anyway, that is a discussion for a later time. It appears now that Brady and Belichick have lost the magic.
Over all, this Super Bowl was good for the Giants’ legacy, yet a blemish on New England’s long term picture. It will go down as a great Super Bowl, though not as epic as the first match-up. After all, you only get a chance to make a team go 18-1 once. 

Friday, February 3, 2012

Super Bowl XVLI


Let’s talk about the Super Bowl.
Firstly, I was right in thinking it would be rematch of a fairly recent Super Bowl. I was just about seven years too early. On a later date, I’ll address the conference championship games. Right now, it hurts too much for us poor, 35 yard field goal victims.
So it’s Giants vs. Patriots in the Super Bowl. A rematch of the infamous Super Bowl XLII—the one that changed how the recent Patriots were seen for a long time and still does today. And this one could have similar ramifications. Here they are.
If the Giants win:
Tom Coughlin will be seen as an elite coach.
Eli will be “Elite Eli”, as he claimed he was before the season started.
The Giants pass rush, their entire defense, will go down as a unit that performs well under pressure and as one of the elite units, if it isn’t already.
The Patriots’ legacy will be challenged – except for Belichick’s. (More on this later).
If the Patriots win:
Belichick will go down in history s the modern Walsh, with Tom Brady as his Montana, unequaled in the last fifteen years.
The Patriots will prove that they don’t choke in the big games, playoff games, in recent memory.
Defense doesn’t need to win championships.
However, I think the Giants will win. Here’s why – defense still wins championships.
They’ve already beaten New England once this season. It will be a close game, don’t get me wrong. But Eli will pull it out, like he has all season, setting the record for fourth quarter touchdowns this season. The Giants are their best under pressure and there is no greater pressure than the Super Bowl.
New England has offense, but several key players are banged up. Notably “Gronk” and Matt Light. Those two players could tip the balance in favor of the Giants if they don’t play well. And the Giants are fairly healthy. Advantage – Giants.
But I really feel that the Giants’ defense will tip this game for New York. They’ve got great players n every level—defensive line, linebackers and secondary. Because their front four can bring so much pressure, so consistently, they will throw Brady off, out of rhythm. This takes the pressure off the ‘backers and the secondary. The secondary is opportunistic, and many of them were here for the last Super Bowl—notably, Webster, the leader. They will not waste any misfires by Tom Brady. And there will be some, with all the pressure brought in the trenches.
With ‘Gronk’ hobbled, the pressure will rest on the shoulders of the other receivers and running backs. Wait, they have other offensive players? The Giants need to be careful of Welker, always a threat, but manageable with their big linebackers to jam him on the line of scrimmage. Just don’t let him out into the flat. He’ll kill you out there.
All this being said, I think that it will be a low scoring, close game.
23-20 Giants.
Bring it Super Sunday. 

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Conference Championships

Here we are, basically two weeks away from the Super Bowl. Now, let me begin by saying I'm proud to report that both of my Super Bowl picks are still in the game. That's better than last year, when they both got knocked out in the second round. I think both championships this year will be good, close games, but here's who will come out on top and why. 

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
In my bracket, I have the Ravens in the Super Bowl. So I can't exactly back down now. I've said all along that I'm not scared of New England. Baltimore has won playoff games on the road there before. They key for the Ravens in this game is simply to run the ball. It will take clock away, keeping Brady and company off the field, and exploit one of the Patriots' major weaknesses -- one of the worst run defenses in the league. Also, Joe Flacco has to play well. He's been under heavy fire, from both inside the locker room and out, being called the weak link on a team that has a star running back and defense. If you're going to believe in the Ravens, you must believe in Joe Flacco. And Cam Cameron's ability to call runs - lots of them. Ray Rice can make up the difference if Flacco struggles. Yes, Tom Brady is formidable. But the defense isn't. And they say defense wins championships. It'll be a good game, regardless of who wins. But I think it's the Ravens' game to lose.

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers
This is an interesting game, one no one would have predicted at the beginning of the season, featuring another one of my Super Bowl bracket picks -- the Giants. San Francisco is a great story. Rookie Coach, redeemed first round quarterback. But right now I believe that's where the story rends. Alex Smith is not Eli Manning. When both defense are as stellar as these two, then to get the result of the game, one must look at the respective offenses. Yes, the 49ers have Frank Gore and Vernon Davis. But the Giants have Bradshaw, Jacobs, Cruz and Eli. For all the Eli haters out there, you must admit that he has at least gotten it together at the end of the season and in the playoffs. I'm not saying that the Giants are going to blow them out -- but I do believe they will win with a combination of hot offense and stingy defense.


Conclusion? 
Super Bowl XLVI will be Ravens v. Giants, a rematch of Super Bowl XXXV. 

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Divisional Round 2011

So, here are the picks for this weekends playoff games.

Saints over 49ers. The spread is 3.5, in favor of the Saints and I would take the Saints.
Reasoning -- at the very least, the Saints will win by a touchdown. They say offense sells tickets and defense wins championships. That principle has had a lot of influence on the picks this week, because several of these match ups show a heavily offensive team with a heavily defensive one. Regardless, I think the Saints offense is too much for the 49ers defense in this case. Saints by a touchdown.

Patriots over Broncos. The spread is 13.5 in favor of the Patriots. I want to say Denver will beat the spread.
Reasoning -- Tim Tebow. If he can continue the upward trend, he has a chance to keep this game close. The defense will have to play better than they did in the last meeting. Remember, Denver owned the first quarter last time. They did fall apart, but they showed they have the potential. Don't be surprised if Denver wins this one -- the Patriots haven't won a playoff game since 2007.

SUNDAY GAMES
Ravens over Texans. The spread is 9, in favor of the Ravens. Take the Ravens. TJ Yates is going to have a long day.
Reasoning -- The Ravens are playing at home. They're strongest there. TJ Yates is a rookie quarterback, who has definitely impressed me, but he's still a rookie. He's got a lot of learning to do here, and it's not going to be pretty. With a week off, Baltimore is rested and prepared for this.

Giants over Packers. The spread is the Packers favored by 8. Take the Giants.
Reasoning -- Remember 2007. Please. This Giants team reminds me so much of that one. Yes, the Packers are an offensive powerhouse. But the Giants can bring the pressure like no one else in the NFC. I would not be surprised to see them win, as they almost did in week 13. So, I'm just going to go out on a limb and pick them. Sorry, Packers nation.

Sunday, January 8, 2012

Playoffs Round 1

Alright here's the second set of playoff picks for wild card weekend. Giants over Falcons (NY giant beat spread 3). Steelers over Broncos but Broncos beat spread (9 or 8.5). Wasn't so great on spread picks yesterday, but got both winners.

Saturday, January 7, 2012

Playoffs day one

Just wanted to throw a quick post up here about the playoffs!
I'm taking the Saints over the Lions, but think the Lions will beat the spread (10.5). Then hoping the Texans can pull it out like last time. So, what the heck, Texans. Cincy to beat the Spread (3).

Let it begin!

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Week 17 Picks!


Here are the final picks of the 2011 season, though they are ironically the first picks of 2012. Playoffs are on the line for a lot of the teams here. Ravens and Giants win their respective divisions. Denver loses, but gets in. Whatcha think? Wish I could say the Bills would knock off New England...

Ravens (11-4) v. Bengals (9-6)
Pick: Ravens
Lions (10-5) v. Green Bay (14-1)
Pick: Lions
49ers (12-3) v. Rams (2-13)
Pick: 49ers
Jets (8-7) v. Dolphins (5-10)
Pick: Dolphins
Bears (7-8) v. Vikings (3-12)
Pick: Bears
Bills (6-9) v. Patriots (12-3)
Pick: Patriots 
Panthers (6-9) v. Saints (12-3)
Pick: Saints
Redskins (5-10) v. Eagles (7-8)
Pick: Eagles
Colts (2-13) v. Jaguars (4-11)
Pick: Colts
Titans (8-7) v. Texans (10-5)
Pick: Texans
Buccaneers (4-11) v. Falcons (9-6)
Pick: Falcons
Steelers (11-4) v. Browns (4-11)
Pick: Steelers
Chiefs (6-9) v. Denver (8-7)
Pick: Chiefs
Chargers (7-8) v. Raiders (8-7)
Pick: Chargers
Seahawks (7-8) v. Cardinals (7-8)
Pick: Seahawks
Cowboys (8-7) v. Giants (8-7)
Pick: Giants