2012 Week 1 Picks

Here's the deal for picks this year. For the first week, my boyfriend Steven and I are going head to head and you all get to watch. Hopefully, I represent well and beat him. (In interest of fairness, we picked completely separately from each other, which is easy because we live in different states right now.) The first pick of each game is my pick. The second is his. Because each team is undefeated, I haven't put records in like I normally would have. Enjoy! I've also provided a link here to the "experts" picks. NFL.com "Offical" picks

Colts vs. Bears
Pick: Colts    Steven: Bears
Falcons vs. Chiefs
Pick: Falcons   Steven: Falcons
Eagles vs. Browns
Pick: Eagles   Steven: Eagles
Redskins vs. Saints
Pick: Saints    Steven: Saints
Rams vs. Lions
Pick: Lions   Steven: Lions
Patriots vs. Titans
Pick: Patriots   Steven: Patriots
Jaguars vs. Vikings
Pick: Vikings   Steven: Vikings
Bills vs. Jets
Pick: Bills   Steven: Jets
Dolphins vs. Texans
Pick: Texans   Steven: Texans
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals   Steven: Seahawks
49ers vs. Packers
Pick: Packers   Steven: Packers
Panthers vs. Buccaneers
Pick: Panthers  Steven: Panthers
Steelers vs. Broncos
Pick: Broncos   Steven: Steelers
Bengals vs. Ravens
Pick: Ravens   Steven: Ravens
Chargers vs. Raiders
Pick: Chargers  Steven: (Update) Chargers

AFC West 2012 Predictions

Denver Broncos
Goodbye Tim, Hello Peyton.

Kansas City Chiefs
May the force be with you, Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles.

San Diego Chargers
Dear Philip, please throw to the team with the same decal on their helmets as you have on yours.

Oakland Raiders
The silver and black will be back on the right track…in a year or two.

AFC South 2012 Predictions

Houston Texans
The Texans finally broke through last year, for a franchise first playoff appearance and win. That success should continue this year, especially with the permanent departure of Peyton from this division. Schaub will be back, hopefully for the whole season. Though I wouldn’t lose faith if T.J Yates had to jump in and start again. After all, he does have the only playoff win in Texans’ history under his belt. Arian Foster must remain healthy, as must Andre Johnson, both of whom had issues last year. And there aren’t that many concerns on the defense—they let Mario Williams, their 1st overall pick, go. J.J Watt and new LB Bradie James, among Brian Cushing, Brooks Reed and Glover Quinn anchor the unit. They were the 2nd ranked defense last year! They’ll sweep through this division and into the playoffs without a problem.

Indy Colts
I believe in Andrew Luck. This is my daring pick for the AFC. They probably won’t make playoffs, but they will have a much better record. He is the real deal. He has good receivers around him, mostly Reggie Wayne. The offensive line is newly composed of new players (Samson Satele, Mike McGlynn and Winston Justice) who will try to protect the Luck. Maybe Donald Brown and Mewelde Moore will put together some form of a running game. The biggest change here will be Chuck Pagano’s arrival because he will improve the defense. Many of the pieces are already there and maybe the new additions of Vontae Davis and Tom Zbikowski in the secondary will help generate more coverage sacks. Except the Colts to surprise this year!

Tennessee Titans 
Chris Johnson’s poor year last year was a major concern and shock to many. What if it continues this year? Have defenses figured him out? Defenses probably won’t have a hard time figuring out Jake Locker as the QB. Britt and Washington are decent receivers, but nothing superb. If Johnson performs as he should, he could make or break Locker’s first season as the starter. The defense has its moments, but will remain in the middle of the pack as they were last year. That pretty much describes the whole Titans team—middle of the pack.

Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are perhaps the NFL’s most floundering franchise. Blaine Gabbert has not even come close to performing at an NFL level. The return of MDJ will make all the difference for this team, though Rashard Jennings could be a very nice surprise as the year goes on. Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson are the new receiving core. Marcedes Lewis could return to the form he had in 2010, but that remains to be seen. The defense (ranked 6th last year, believe it or not) needs to produce more sacks and pressure to contain the quarterbacks and running backs in this division. But William and Mary’s very own Derek Cox leads the secondary, boosted by the arrival of Aaron Ross from New York. Rebuilding isn’t even a good enough term for what’s going to happen to the Jags this year.

AFC East 2012 Predictions

New England Patriots
The Patriots will win this division. I do not believe they will go on to win, or even necessarily play in, the Super Bowl this year. Their offense, full of Brady, Lloyd, Welker and Gronkowski will blow people out of the water. However, I’m concerned about the running game. The leading career rusher on the roster right now is Tom Brady. Who is not a running quarterback. The defense should be better, but not great. It ranked 31st last year—people tend to forget that. There haven’t been too many changes either. Just the additions of Dont’a Hightower (LB) and Steve Gregory (FS). Kyle Arrington is also around, but how much playing time he’ll see is up for debate. A soft schedule should be kind to this unit. Playoffs for sure.

Buffalo Bills
Ryan Fitspatrick needs to return to the form of his first half season last year. The talent around him needs to help him once again rise—they need to be coherent as a unit. However, if Fred Jackson can stay healthy, I believe they have a shot to do just that. I believe in the Bills. I just do, for some reason I can’t even really put into words. A revamped defense, including Mario Williams, should help take some pressure off the offense. Is Mario Williams the Reggie White of today? Can his arrival change the outlook of a whole franchise? He will certainly help them in the division, containing Sanchez, Tebow and Tannehill. It’s the third year in the system—look for the Bills as a whole to put together some more consistent performances.

New York Jets
Honestly, I wish I had the guts to put the Jets in the bottom of this division. I really do, but I won’t. The defense will keep them afloat, in a manner of speaking. Tebow and Sanchez cannot co-exist. That was the one move this off-season that made no sense to me (for the Broncos it did). Sanchez will play badly because he has no receivers and very little running game and then the whole of New York will cry Tebow. Ryan probably won’t cave, but it certainly won’t help Sanchez’s confidence. The defense remains the same, however, with the exceptions of Laron Landry (SS) and Yeremiah Bell (FS) in the secondary. The hope is that second year player Muhammad Wiklerson matures to put some pressure on the opposing QBs. This ship is sinking fast, however.

Miami Dolphins
Can Joe Philbin lead this team back to a place of prominence in a city where the Heat also reside? We’ll see. However, people forget that though he was in the background in Green Bay, the players loved him. And players that love their coach are more likely to put more effort into making him look good. Soft spoken doesn’t always mean poor leadership. Speaking of leadership, Ryan Tannehill must take control of this team. He must instill a sense of hope in the players around him. A revamped offensive line hopes to keep him upright and able to find targets such as Reggie Bush and Davone Bess. The defense is nothing to write home about, but is home to several noteable players, such as Cameron Wake and Karlos Dansby, who might surprise. People hate the term rebuilding year, but this is certainly one for Miami.

AFC North 2012 Predicitions

Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have been the strongest team in this division since the Harbarugh/Flacco era started five years ago. They were one missed kick away from going to the Super Bowl last year and that playoff game showed how Flacco has matured as a quarterback. The defense will be strong as long as Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are on the field, though the absence of Suggs for most, if not all of the season, will hurt them. Paul Kruger and Jameel McClain are going to have to pick up the slack. A new kicker should almost erase the memories of last year…almost.

Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have had some rare drama this off-season. After getting bummed from the playoffs last year, they endured a lengthy holdout with wideout Mike Wallace and have running back issues. Todd Haley and Roethlisberger have to get on the same page, which has been fairly well documented throughout the off season. The defense is always good under Dick LeBeau, so that isn’t a huge concern, though injuries do. James Harrison is already a “game time decision” for this weekend’s opener. The schedule isn’t too brutal, but they need to put together a new look offense.

Cincinnati Bengals
The sophomore curse is coming after Andy Dalton and A.J Green. And by sophomore curse, I mean a killer schedule. Also, BenJarvis GreenEllis isn’t the back that Cedric Benson was. Last year, they had the advantage of surprise – no one expected them to burst onto the scene. This year, there’s no trickery involved; in other words defenses will be ready for what’s coming. And in this division, that means Baltimore and Pittsburgh are coming. Cincy’s defense itself is pretty good, ranked 7th overall. They didn’t make any huge acquisitions however, so nothing has really changed. Last year was a blip on the radar for these Bengals.

Cleveland Browns
The Browns still don’t know what they want from their team. Who are they? Who do they want to be offensively and defensively? After a failed experiment with Colt McCoy, they went out and drafted 28 year old Brandon Weeden. His age will be an advantage here because of the maturity that comes with it, something this team has lacked for a long time. The larger addition of Trent Richardson is more important for this team to finally find some offense. A good running game can cover a lot of other problems. A revamped DL with John Hughes and Frostee Rucker will attempt to reign in the quarterbacks of this division. However, the rest of the division is just too strong for the poor Browns.

NFC West 2012 Predictions

San Francisco 49ers
This is the team that took everyone by surprise last year. Though they won’t sneak up on anyone this year, they won’t lose a step, especially in a division that is notoriously weak. Harbarugh did what no other coach has been able to do – understand Alex Smith. That made all the difference. Great teams are the ones that understand their strengths and use them to their advantage. The 49ers wrote the book on this last year. Now with the addition of Randy Moss, they have a proven big play receiver besides Vernon Davis. All of the defensive starters return—an unheard of phenomenon in today’s age of free agency. With Patrick Willis in the center, leading this unit, look for them to continue their dominance.

Arizona Cardinals
I’m putting the Cardinals above the Seahawks here because of their schedule. I also believe they’re a huge sleeper team. John Skelton will be the quarterback here—he has earned it. He has Larry Fitzgerald and Todd Heap to throw to, as well as Beanie Wells (RB), who has continued to develop. The defense was middle of the pack—literally, they were ranked 18th. But that doesn’t mean they lack for talent. Darnell Docket, Patrick Peterson, Adrian Wilson, William Gay and Calais Campbell are the heart of this defense. They needed a year to adjust to the 3-4, but should be more confident now. They’re my sleeper pick for the playoffs. Playoffs?!?!

Seattle Seahawks
I have never been sold on Pete Carroll and his methods. I don’t like Russell Wilson, even though he is from Wisconsin, as a rookie starting quarterback, especially over Matt Flynn. We’ll see if he doesn’t get benched for Flynn at some point. This team lacks a big receiver. Yes, they have Sidney Rice, but he hasn’t had a big year since he played with Brett Favre. Marshawn Lynch is a beast but he can’t carry this team through this schedule by himself. The defense is stronger than most people think (ranked 9th last year), but can’t hold up against Green Bay, Carolina, New England, Detroit, Chicago and San Francisco (twice). They’ve got an exceptional pair of CBs but that’s about it on the defensive side.

St. Louis Rams
The poor Rams. Sam Bradford needs to develop, or finish developing. He just kind of stalled last year. Steven Jackson is once again back to help and truly be the offense. They’ve added Steve Smith and tried to bolster the offensive line. They’ve also revamped the defense by adding six new starters, Michael Brockers, Kendall Langford, Mario Haggan, Jo-Lonn Dunbar, Cortland Finnegan and Janoris Jenkins. With Jeff Fisher at the helm now, you never know. My prediction is that in TWO years, the Rams might contend seriously for a division title again. But Fisher was thrown for a little bit of a loop when he lost his defensive coordinator in Greg Williams. But Fisher knows how to turn around bad teams—give him time, he’ll get there with these guys too.

NFC South 2012 Predictions

New Orleans Saints
Yes, “bounty-gate” happened to the Saints. Yes, Sean Payton is gone for the season. But let’s be honest with ourselves here. The Saints are one of those teams that pretty much can handle itself. There’s a reason that Drew Brees is the most prolific quarterback in the league over the last five years he’s been in New Orleans. The offense has all its parts returning. The defense will be improved, with Steve Spagnuolo at the helm. Don’t be fooled by his tough stint in St. Louis – New Orleans is full of much more talent that St. Louis was. Curtis Lofton was brought in to replace Jonathan Vilma—he has the ability to do so. Don’t count New Orleans out – if a team can respond well to adversity, it’s this one.

Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta for me is a team that can get close, but never step through the door. The offense is pretty good, lead by Matt Ryan, who is always consistent. Michael Turner is a good back who has also been consistent. But that’s the thing about Atlanta—they’re consistent, not innovative. Even when they gave up their entire draft for Julio Jones two years ago, they didn’t turn his acquisition into an innovation, or even big plays. All of this doesn’t make Atlanta a bad team, they are to me the definition of a good vanilla team. Which makes them easy for a good coach to take apart, such as Spagnuolo or Tom Coughlin. Asante Samuel gives them a good chance to containing Brees and Newton—they could contend for the title here, but I can’t see them keeping up with New Orleans, though they have a favorable schedule.

Carolina Panthers
I was very vocal last year about how I wasn’t sold on Cam Newton. I’m still not convinced that I was 100% wrong, because only time will really tell how good he can be. But he was good. However, he was almost all of their offense last year. Deangelo Williams didn’t really show up like he has before, but part of that may have been Newton’s own running ability. Steve Smith is a solid receiver and the offense has plenty of firepower potential. What sunk this team last year was the defense. They sucked—28th in the league. The return of injured linebacker, and captain, Jon Beason should help, as well as the first round addition of Luke Kuechly. But I’m not sure they can make the leap to shut down in just a year—even the year before with Beason intact they weren’t stellar. In this division, you’ve got to be able to play defense as well as score points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa, you’re back to your losing ways. And it looks like you’re going to stay there for a while. While everyone else in your division has strived to make progress, you’ve actually gone backwards. Josh Freeman, after a surprisingly good rookie season, regressed in a major way in his second year. However, I like the replacement of Raheem Morris, who was just too relaxed. Players need some gentle discipline, and Greg Schiano should provide that. If Freeman and Williams can return to form and integrate Vincent Jackson, they might have some offense. But it will take time for the complete mental change that needs to take place here. The defensive line needs to play up to its potential, though the secondary is anchored by Aqib Talib and the ever young Ronde Barber. The team has taken a step in the right direction for the future, but for right now, the going will be slow and rough.